Estimates of the national trend of drugs use during 2000–2030 in China: A population-based mathematical model |
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| Institution: | 1. Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Xi’an Jiaotong University Health Science Center, Xi’an, Shaanxi, 710061, PR China.;2. Melbourne Sexual Health Centre, Alfred Health, Melbourne, Australia;3. Central Clinical School, Faculty of Medicine, Nursing and Health Sciences, Monash University, Melbourne, VIC, Australia;4. Center for Social Research in Health, Faculty of Arts and Social Science at the University of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW, Australia;5. Research Center for Public Health, Tsinghua University, Beijing, China;6. School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Faculty of Medicine, Nursing and Health Sciences, Monash University, Melbourne, VIC, Australia;1. Department of Epidemiology, College of Public Health & Health Professions, College of Medicine, University of Florida, 2004 Mowry Road, PO Box 100231, Gainesville, FL 32610, United States;2. Department of Clinical and Health Psychology, College of Public Health & Health Professions, University of Florida, 1225 Center Drive, PO Box 100165, Gainesville, FL 32610, United States;3. Department of Psychology, College of Natural and Health Sciences, Virginia State University, United States;1. RAND Corporation, 1776 Main Street, Santa Monica, CA 90407-2138, USA;2. VA HSR&D Center for Healthcare Innovation, Implementation and Policy, 16111 Plummer Street (152), Sepulveda, CA 91343-2036, USA;3. Pardee RAND Graduate School, 1776 Main Street, Santa Monica, CA 90407-2138, USA;4. RAND Corporation, 4570 Fifth Avenue, Pittsburgh, PA 15213, USA |
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| Abstract: | BackgroundThe use of synthetic drugs has exceeded heroin to become a major public health concern in China. We aimed to estimate the trend of heroin-only, synthetic drug-only and poly-drug (heroin and synthetic drug) use during 2000–2030 period in China using existing data.MethodsWe used data from the Annual Report on Drug Control in China and peer-reviewed publications. We constructed a mathematical model to estimate the drug use trend based on Monte Carlo simulations.ResultsThe best calibrated model estimated that the number of drug users would increase from 0.86 million to 3,120,059 (95% CI 2,669,214-3,570,904) during 2000–2030 period. The proportion of heroin-only users among the total drug users will decrease from 96.8% (95% CI, 96.6–97.1%) in 2000 to 36.9% (30.1–40.8%) in 2030, while the proportion of synthetic drug-only users will increase from 1.1% (0.9–1.3%) in 2000 to 57.7% (51.7–65.6%) in 2030. In contrast, the proportion of poly-drug users shared an increasing trend during 2000–2016 (from 2.1% (1.5–2.8%) to 15.1 (13.8–17.1%)) but declined to 5.5% (3.4–7.2%) in 2030. Estimated 46,370 (41,634-51,106) heroin-only users and 3767 (3481–4053) synthetic drug only users initiated poly-drug use in 2000. We observed a cross-over in 2012 where more synthetic drug-only users were initiating heroin use than heroin-only users initiating synthetic drug use. There will be estimated 2,094,052 (1,819,830–2,368,274) synthetic drug-only users and poly-drug users 211,407 (177,150–245,664) in 2030.ConclusionsSynthetic drug use will become dominant in drug users in China, but poly-drug use of both heroin and synthetic drugs will remain substantial. |
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