2004-2015年中国高速公路与普通公路交通伤对比研究

目的 明确我国高速公路道路与普通公路交通事故在事故严重性、时间分布、道路环境、驾龄分布方面的差异.方法 采集2004-2015年高速公路和普通公路交通伤相关数据(除西藏和重庆外),包括事故起数、死亡人数、受伤人数、直接财产损失、24 h分布、驾龄分布和道路环境条件等.分析高速公路道路交通事故与普通公路的差异.定量资料采用描述性分析;高速公路与普通公路比较采用独立样本t检验;危险因素的危险程度大小采用相对危险度表示,差异性分析采用x2检验.结果 高速公路事故与普通公路相比,里程死亡率为4.51倍(P＜0.01),事故死亡率为2.21倍(P＜0.01),每起事故直接财产损失约为10倍(P＜0.01),交通伤伤死率为1.64倍(P＜0.01).高速公路交通事故发生死亡的危险性是普通公路交通事故的1.97倍(RR=1.97,95％ CI:1.96～1.99).24 h内的事故分布特点:高速公路呈双高峰特点(4:00-6:00和15:00-17:00),而普通公路8:00-24:00没有明显的高发时间段,两者时间分布差异具有统计学意义(P＜0.01).高速公路致死性事故多发生在晴朗天气和干燥路面,RR值分别为1.17(95％ CI:1.15 ～1.19)和1.23(95％ CI:1.21 ～ 1.26),与普通公路比较差异具有统计学意义(P=0.028).驾驶员驾龄＞10年导致高速公路致死性事故明显高于普通公路(P=0.043).结论 我国高速公路交通伤严重程度明显高于普通公路交通伤.高速公路交通事故更倾向于发生在凌晨、高龄驾驶员、环境条件较好的情况下.

Comparative study on factors for injury severity between highway and roadway motor vehicle crashes in China, 2004-2015

Objective To clarify the difference in the severity,the hour of occurrence,road surface conditions,weather conditions and the years of valid driver's license between the highroad motor vehicle crashes (hMVCs) and roadway MVCs (rMVCs).Methods The crash-related information was pulled out from the annual national reports of motor vehicle crashes released by Traffic Management Bureau between 2004 and 2015,including fatal cases toll,the total number of the fatalities and the injured,the direct economic loss,the hour of occurrence,the year of valid driver's licenses as well as the road conditions.The quantitative data were analyzed by descriptive analysis,the comparisons between hMVCs and rMVCs were analyzed by independent-samples t-test,the difference in the impact factors was assessed by Chi-squared test.Results Compared with the rMVCs,the mileage crash death rate of hMVCs was about 4.5 times higher (P ＜ 0.01),the death rate per crashes was 2.21 times higher (P ＜ 0.01),the direct economic loss was almost 10 times higher (P ＜0.01).The relative risk of the fatal crash in hMVCs was 1.97(RR =1.97,95％ CI:1.96 ～ 1.99) times higher than in rMVCs.The hour of occurrence presented 2 spikes,4:00-6:00 and 15:00-17:00 in hMVCs,however,it was gradually climbing and remained in comparatively high level between 8:00-24:00 in rMVCs.The distributions of the crashes,fatalities and the injured by the hour of occurrence were found to be significantly different between hMVCs and rMVCs.The relative risk of dry road and clear weather in the fatalities caused by hMVCs were represented by RR as 1.17 (95 ％ CI:1.15 ～1.19) and 1.23 (95％CI:1.21 ～1.26) respectively.In the fatal cases in hMVCs,the years of the valid driver's license beyond 10 years was significantly higher than those of other year groups,and the distribution in the hMVVs and rMVCs was different (P =0.043).Conclusion The severity of hMVCs is significantly higher than that of rMVCs.In China,the fatal crashes is closely related to the time before dawn,the good road condition and longer year of valid driver license.