广东省登革热流行与气候因素变化的相关性

目的 :探索登革热发病与伊蚊种群动态变化和气候因素的关系 ,为登革热的防治和监测提供科学依据 .方法 :收集广东省 1990 / 2 0 0 1年的登革热发病资料 ,收集了潮州市的1995 / 2 0 0 1年伊蚊媒介监测资料及同期的平均气温、最低气温、最高气温、日照时间、降雨量、相对湿度等气象资料 ,用相关分析和多元逐步回归分析的方法进行分析 .结果 :与媒介伊蚊密度有关的气象参数是 :降雨量、日照时间、降雨天数、平均气温、最低平均气温、相对湿度 ;经逐步回归分析得到回归方程 :Y^BI=2 4 80 0 +0 82 6X1+0 0 2 0X2 - 0 4 18X3 其中X1代表最低平均气温、X2 代表降雨量、X3 代表相对湿度。登革热发病的Logistic回归方程 :p (I) =1/ 1+e( -7 850 + 0 3 9IB) ].结论 :气侯因素对伊蚊媒介密度的影响是复杂的 ,主要影响因素是最低平均气温、降雨量、相对湿度 ;影响登革热发病的主要因素是伊蚊密度 (BI) .

Correlation between dengue fever epidemic and climate factors in Guangdong Province

AIM:To explore the correlation between deng ue fever and the changes of aedes population dynamics, and between dengue fever an d climate factors so as to provide scientific evidence for preventing and monito ring dengue fever. METHODS: Data of dengue fever case we re collected in Guangdong province from 1990 to 2001. Data of aedes vector's sur veillance and climate in the corresponding period were collected in Chaozhou cit y from 1995 to 2001, climate data including average air temperature, lowest air temperature, highest air temperature, sunlight, rainfall and relative humidity T he data were analyzed by methods of correlation analysis, stepwise regression an d logistic regression analysis. RESULTS: Meteorological parameters correlating with vector aedes density were rainfall, sunlight, averag e air temperature, lowest average air temperature and relative humidity. Stepwis e regression analysis got the regression equation: viz.:Y BI =24 800+0 826x 1+0 020x 2-0 418x 3(x 1 represents lowe st average air temperature, x 2 rainfall and x 3 relative humidity). The logistic regression equation of dengue fever episode was P(I)=1/e -(-7 850+0 391BI ]. . CONCLUSION : The influence of climate on aedes density is complicated, but the pri mary factors are lowest average air temperature, rainfall and relative humidity and the aedes density is the primary factor for dengue incidence.