Bayesian estimation of cost-effectiveness from censored data |
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Authors: | Heitjan Daniel F Kim Clara Yuri Li Huiling |
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Affiliation: | Department of Biostatistics & Epidemiology, University of Pennsylvania School of Medicine, 622 Blockley Hall, 423 Guardian Drive, Philadelphia, PA 19104-6021, U.S.A. dheitjan@cceb.upenn.edu |
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Abstract: | We describe a Bayesian methodology for estimating the cost-effectiveness of a new treatment compared to a standard in a clinical trial, when censoring of survival, the effectiveness variable, induces censoring of total cost. The statistical model assumes that survival follows a Weibull distribution and that total health care cost follows a gamma distribution whose mean has a linear regression on survival time. We summarize the posterior distributions of key parameters by importance sampling. We illustrate the method with an analysis of data from a randomized clinical trial of a treatment for cardiovascular disease. |
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Keywords: | Bayesian inference clinical trials cost‐effectiveness ratios importance sampling net monetary benefit |
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