采用乘数法结合社交软件估计南京市MSM人群规模

目的 估计南京市MSM规模,为艾滋病疫情估计和防治策略制定提供科学依据.方法 基于乘数法原理结合Blued社交软件,并同时采用现场调查和网络调查对南京市的MSM规模进行估计,通过男同社交软件Blued的后台统计连续7d在南京市范围内登录人数的平均值作为记录数(record,r),通过网络和现场调查了解MSM同时期内登录...

Population size estimation of men who have sex with men in Nanjing using multiplier method based on social software

  Objective  The study aimed to estimate the population size of men who have sex with men (MSM) in Nanjing, to provide valuable information for estimating the AIDS epidemic, and to develop HIV prevention strategy.  Methods  An innovative approach to population size estimation grounded on the principles of the multiplier method and social app technology, and location-based surveys and internet-based surveys were undertaken among MSM. The number of MSM (r) is the average person-times of logging in Blued App in Nanjing region within 7 days. Meanwhile, a survey was conducted among MSM to obtain the proportion of MSM who had logging in the Blued APP during the given period and the reciprocal of the proportion was the multiplier (m). The MSM population size can be estimated by r multiplied by m.  Results  The population of MSM in Nanjing was estimated to be 35 138 (95% CI: 33 847-36 429) and corresponded to 1.12% of the adult male population aged from 15 to 59 years in Nanjing (95% CI: 1.08%-1.16%). There were significant differences in ways of finding sexual partners, monthly income, the proportion of anal intercourse in the past 6 months, frequency of condom uses during anal sex and the proportion of recreational drug use among MSM population in different investigation methods (all P < 0.05).  Conclusion  The method to population size estimation grounded on the principles of the multiplier method and social app technology, and using field surveys and internet-based surveys facilitates reaching the network of MSM including hidden pockets of the group and seems to be feasible and credible.