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| 2000～2008年甘南藏族自治州5岁以下儿童死亡分析及趋势预测 | |
| 引用本文： | 陈亚,卫春英,张存莲,刘舒瑜,李芝兰.2000～2008年甘南藏族自治州5岁以下儿童死亡分析及趋势预测[J].中国妇幼保健,2010,25(9). |
| 作者姓名： | 陈亚 卫春英 张存莲 刘舒瑜 李芝兰 |
| 作者单位： | 1. 兰州大学公共卫生学院,甘肃,兰州,730000 2. 甘南州妇幼保健院 3. 甘肃省卫生厅 |
| 摘 要： | 目的:了解2000～2008年甘南藏族自治州5岁以下儿童死亡率,观察分析死亡动态及死亡原因,预测其死亡率。方法:对甘南儿童死亡报告卡进行整理分析,并使用曲线回归分析法对死亡率进行拟合及预测。结果:早期新生儿、新生儿、婴儿及5岁以下儿童死亡率均呈下降趋势,与2000年相比,2008年早期新生儿、新生儿、婴儿和5岁以下儿童死亡率分别下降了7.58‰、10.81‰、21.74%和24.79‰(P0.05);早期新生儿死亡原因以新生儿窒息、早产和低出生体重为主,新生儿及婴儿死亡原因均以新生儿窒息和肺炎为主,1～4岁儿童死因主要是意外死亡;婴儿和5岁以下儿童拟合效果较好(R2=0.775,0.826)。结论:减少早期新生儿死亡是降低5岁以下儿童死亡率的关键,加强围产保健及孕产妇系统管理是预防的重要环节;曲线回归分析法对5岁以下儿童死亡率的拟合效果较好,可以应用于预测。 |
| 关 键 词： | 甘南 5岁以下儿童 死亡率 预测 |
Death analysis and the trend prediction of children under 5 years old in Gannan Tibetan Autonomous Prefecture from 2000 to 2008 |
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| CHEN Ya,WEI Chun-Ying,ZHANG Cun-Lian et al.School of Public Health,Lanzhou University,Lanzhou ,Gansu,China.Death analysis and the trend prediction of children under 5 years old in Gannan Tibetan Autonomous Prefecture from 2000 to 2008[J].Maternal and Child Health Care of China,2010,25(9). | |
| Authors: | CHEN Ya WEI Chun-Ying ZHANG Cun-Lian School of Public Health Lanzhou University Lanzhou Gansu China |
| Institution: | CHEN Ya,WEI Chun-Ying,ZHANG Cun-Lian et al.School of Public Health,Lanzhou University,Lanzhou 730000,Gansu,China |
| Abstract: | Objective:To understand the mortality of children under 5 years old in Gannan Tibetan Autonomous Prefecture from 2000 to 2008,observe and analyze the dynamic changes and causes of death,and predict the mortality.Methods:The death reporting cards of children were categorized and analyzed.The mortality of children under 5 years old was predicted by curvilinear regression analysis.Results:The mortalities of early neonates,neonates,infants and children under 5 years old showed a decreasing trend,compared to 200... |
| Keywords: | Gannan Children under 5 years old Mortality Prediction |
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