利用关键知情者及枚举法估计暗娼人群基数的应用研究

目的利用关键知情者和枚举法估计样本地区暗娼人群基数,探讨利用关键知情者估计暗娼人群基数的可行性和适宜性。方法通过文献研究、关键知情者排序及访谈确定关键知情者,由分布知情者提供暗娼活动场所的分布情况,确定抽样框,依据局部知情者提供所有场所暗娼规模信息,汇总即得暗娼人群基数;枚举法是按照场所类别各层抽样调查,计算各层调查样本的均数,推算,汇总。结果利用关键知情者估计的样本地区暗娼基数占当地总人口的0.24%,占15～49岁女性人口的1.36%;利用枚举法估计的人数占样本地区总人口数的0.26%,占15～49岁女性人口的1.48%。结论利用关键知情者提供的信息估计暗娼人群基数是方便易行的,且与枚举法相比更方便接近暗娼活动场所并获取所需要的信息。

Applications of crucial insiders and enumeration method for estimating the population size of female commercial sex workers

Objective Uses Enumeration and crucial insider method to estimate the size of female commercial sex workers（FCSW）,exploring the feasibility,advantages and disadvantages of using crucial insider method.Methods The distribution crucial insiders and local crucial insiders are separately fixed by literature analysis,sorting the crucial insiders and on-site interviews.The distribution crucial insiders provide the distribution of places existing CSWs in the city to identify sampling frame.Aggregate the number of CSWs in each place based on the information provided by local crucial insiders.The first step to use enumeration method is sampling according to the type of places,and then calculating the average number of CSWs in each type.Summarize all the information to obtain estimative size of target population.Results Summarizing all the information provided by crucial insiders,the number of CSWs accounted for 0.24% to the population in the city,and 1.36% to female population from 15 to 49 years old;The size of CSWs which was estimated by the method of enumeration accounted for 0.26% to the population in the city,and 1.48% to female population from 15 to 49 years old.Conclusions It is an effective method for recruiting proper key informants and using the information they provided to estimate the size of CSWs.Compared with enumeration method,this method is more convenient to be in touch with CSWs places and obtain the required information resources.