| 韶关某煤矿尘肺患病人数预测方法的初步探讨 |
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| 引用本文： | 肖全华,李舒才,曹永兴.韶关某煤矿尘肺患病人数预测方法的初步探讨[J].中国职业医学,1989(6). |
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| 作者姓名： | 肖全华 李舒才 曹永兴 |
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| 作者单位： | 广东省韶关市职业病防治院
(肖全华，李舒才)，广东省韶关市职业病防治院(曹永兴) |
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| 摘 要： | 本文采用灰色数列对韶关某煤矿今后五年尘肺患病人数(实有尘肺病人数)进行预测,并对此法的实际应用作了初步探讨;建立了数学模型(?)(t)=583e~(0.038(t-1)—452,结果表明:该模型精度良好(最大相对误差4.83%,小于5.00%),灰色模型预测拟合程度优于直线回归模型。
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| 关 键 词： | 灰色数列 预测 尘肺 模型 |
Forecasting approach for the number of pneumoconiosis patients in a coal mine in Shaoguan area. |
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| Xiao Quanhua.Forecasting approach for the number of pneumoconiosis patients in a coal mine in Shaoguan area.[J].China Occupational Medicine,1989(6). |
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| Authors: | Xiao Quanhua |
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| Institution: | Xiao Quanhua |
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| Abstract: | TO forecast the number of pneumoconiosis patients in a coal mine in Shaoguan area for the coming five years, the grey model was adopted, a mathematical model was established (?)(t)=583e~(0.038(1-1))-452] and its applicability was discussed. The results showed that the precision of the mathematical model was excellent (maximal relative error was 4.83%,<5.00%). The goodness-of-fit of grey model was better than that of linear regression. |
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| Keywords: | coal mine pneumoconiosis forecasting approach grey model |
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