Predictors of mortality in an aging community-based cohort in Korea

Background: Multiple factors related to specific dimensions of health – general, physical and mental – contribute to mortality in the elderly, but their relative contributions to mortality risk is not well‐known. The objectives of this prospective population‐based cohort study were to measure mortality rates and to identify predictors of mortality in community‐dwelling men and women aged 65 years or older in Korea by examining self assessments of general health, objective medical burden, and measurement of cognition, mood and function. Methods: A total of 1245 elderly (529 men; 716 women) were followed up longitudinally for 3.5 years. Fixed predictor variables observed at baseline examined in Cox proportional hazards models were age, sex, education, chronic medical illnesses, self‐rated health, basic activities of daily living, depression measured by the Geriatric Depression Scale, and cognition measured by the Mini‐Mental State Examination. Results: Mortality rates were similar to those of the 2001 Korean population. Older age, male sex, poor self‐rated health and presence of cerebrovascular disease were significant predictors of mortality. Presence of ischemic heart disease and cerebrovascular disease at baseline predicted mortality in men, but not in women. Depression predicted mortality only when chronic medical illnesses were excluded from the model. Conclusions: Subjective self‐rated health and objective medical burden are strong independent predictors of mortality in this elderly community population, in addition to age and sex.