2014-2019年湖北省某市慢性病死亡率及早死概率分析

目的 分析湖北省钟祥市慢性病死亡率及早死概率的变化趋势,为当地制定慢性病防控规划提供依据.方法 采用2014-2019年钟祥市居民死因监测资料,用寿命表法的原理计算慢性病早死概率,使用SPSS 20.0软件进行率的趋势x2检验,利用Joinpoint 4.7.0.0软件计算死亡率及早死概率的年度变化百分比(annual...

Mortality and probability of premature death caused by chronic diseases in a city of Hubei Province, 2014-2019

Objective To analyze the changing trends of mortality and early death probability of chronic diseases in Zhongxiang City, Hubei Province, and to provide a basis for formulating the local planning for chronic disease prevention and control. Methods Based on the surveillance data of death causes of residents in Zhongxiang City from 2014 to 2019, the probability of premature death of chronic diseases was calculated by the principle of life table method. The trend chi-square test of the progress rate was carried out using SPSS 20.0 software. The annual percent changes (APC) of mortality and premature death probability were calculated by Joinpoint 4.7.0.0 software. Results From 2014 to 2019, the crude death rate of chronic diseases in Zhongxiang City, Hubei Province was 495.02/100,000, and the standardized death rate 448.27/100,0002. The crude death rate of four kinds of chronic diseases was 457.77/100,000, and the standardized death rate 400.04/100,000. The standardized mortalities of cardio-cerebral-vascular diseases in males (APC=-6.60%, t=-8.18, P=0.001), females (APC=-7.04%, t=-3.04, P=0.039) and total population (APC=-6.23%, t=-4.78, P=0.009) showed downward trends, and the changing trends were statistically significant (all P<0.05). The probability of premature death from chronic diseases was 14.55%, and that from four kinds of chronic diseases 13.17%. The probability of premature death of cardio-cerebral-vascular diseases in males (APC=-2.53%, t=-2.78, P=0.049) showed a downward trend, and the changing trend was statistically significant (P<0.05). Trends in the probability of premature death from diabetes (APC=22.05%, t=2.84, P=0.048) showed a clear upward trend, and there were statistically significant differences in the changing trends (P<0.05). Conclusion The probability of premature death from four kinds of chronic diseases in Zhongxiang City, Hubei Province was 13.17%, which increased by 0.01% from 2014 to 2019. No statistically significant differences were found in the trend analysis, and there was still a big gap with the China Health 2030 target. The probability of premature death from four kinds of chronic diseases was higher in males than in females. Hence males are the key population for future chronic disease intervention. The probability of early death from diabetes increased significantly. Hence comprehensive interventions for diabetes should be given priority.