2014—2019年湖北省某市慢性病死亡率及早死概率分析

目的 分析湖北省钟祥市慢性病死亡率及早死概率的变化趋势,为当地制定慢性病防控规划提供依据。 方法 采用2014—2019年钟祥市居民死因监测资料,用寿命表法的原理计算慢性病早死概率,使用SPSS 20.0软件进行率的趋势χ²检验,利用Joinpoint 4.7.0.0软件计算死亡率及早死概率的年度变化百分比(annual percent change,APC)。 结果 2014—2019年湖北省钟祥市慢性病粗死亡率为495.02/10万,标化死亡率为448.27/10万,四类慢病粗死亡率为457.77/10万,标化死亡率为400.04/10万。男性(APC=-6.60%,t=-8.18,P=0.001)、女性(APC=-7.04%,t=-3.04,P=0.039)、总人群(APC=-6.23%,t=-4.78,P=0.009)心脑血管疾病的标化死亡率呈下降趋势,变化趋势有统计学意义(P<0.05)。慢性病早死概率为14.55%,四类慢病早死概率为13.17%。男性心脑血管疾病早死概率(APC=-2.53%,t=-2.78,P=0.049)呈下降趋势,变化趋势有统计学意义(P<0.05)。糖尿病的早死概率(APC=22.05%,t=2.84,P=0.048)趋势分析上升态势明显,变化趋势有统计学意义(P<0.05)。 结论 湖北省钟祥市四类慢病早死概率为13.17%,2014—2019年上升0.01%,趋势分析无统计学意义,与“健康中国2030”目标仍有不小差距。男性四类慢病早死概率均高于女性,男性为未来慢病干预的重点人群。糖尿病早死概率上升幅度较大,应优先对糖尿病进行综合干预。

Mortality and probability of premature death caused by chronic diseases in a city of Hubei Province, 2014-2019

Objective To analyze the changing trends of mortality and early death probability of chronic diseases in Zhongxiang City, Hubei Province, and to provide a basis for formulating the local planning for chronic disease prevention and control. Methods Based on the surveillance data of death causes of residents in Zhongxiang City from 2014 to 2019, the probability of premature death of chronic diseases was calculated by the principle of life table method. The trend chi-square test of the progress rate was carried out using SPSS 20.0 software. The annual percent changes (APC) of mortality and premature death probability were calculated by Joinpoint 4.7.0.0 software. Results From 2014 to 2019, the crude death rate of chronic diseases in Zhongxiang City, Hubei Province was 495.02/100,000, and the standardized death rate 448.27/100,0002. The crude death rate of four kinds of chronic diseases was 457.77/100,000, and the standardized death rate 400.04/100,000. The standardized mortalities of cardio-cerebral-vascular diseases in males (APC=-6.60%, t=-8.18, P=0.001), females (APC=-7.04%, t=-3.04, P=0.039) and total population (APC=-6.23%, t=-4.78, P=0.009) showed downward trends, and the changing trends were statistically significant (all P<0.05). The probability of premature death from chronic diseases was 14.55%, and that from four kinds of chronic diseases 13.17%. The probability of premature death of cardio-cerebral-vascular diseases in males (APC=-2.53%, t=-2.78, P=0.049) showed a downward trend, and the changing trend was statistically significant (P<0.05). Trends in the probability of premature death from diabetes (APC=22.05%, t=2.84, P=0.048) showed a clear upward trend, and there were statistically significant differences in the changing trends (P<0.05). Conclusion The probability of premature death from four kinds of chronic diseases in Zhongxiang City, Hubei Province was 13.17%, which increased by 0.01% from 2014 to 2019. No statistically significant differences were found in the trend analysis, and there was still a big gap with the China Health 2030 target. The probability of premature death from four kinds of chronic diseases was higher in males than in females. Hence males are the key population for future chronic disease intervention. The probability of early death from diabetes increased significantly. Hence comprehensive interventions for diabetes should be given priority.