Effect of body mass index trajectory on lifetime risk of cardiovascular disease in a Chinese population: A cohort study |
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| Institution: | 1. Ministry of Education Key Laboratory of Environment and Health, and State Key Laboratory of Environmental Health (Incubating), School of Public Health, Tongji Medical College, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, No.13 Hangkong Road, Wuhan, 430030, China;2. Department of Maternal and Child Health, School of Public Health, Tongji Medical College, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, No.13 Hangkong Road, Wuhan, 430030, China;3. Department of Cardiology, Kailuan Hospital, North China University of Science and Technology, No.57 Xinhua East Road, Tangshan City, 063001, China;1. Institute of Agro-Product Processing, Jiangsu Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Nanjing 210014, PR China;2. Medical College, Yangzhou University, Yangzhou 225000, PR China;3. School of Food & Bioengineering, Jiangsu University, Zhenjiang 212013, PR China;4. School of Life Sciences, Nantong University, Nantong 226019, PR China;5. Department of Food Science & Technology, School of Agriculture and Biology, Shanghai Jiao Tong University, Shanghai 200240, PR China;1. Department of Biochemistry, Integral Institute of Medical Sciences and Research, Integral University, Lucknow, India;2. Department of Biochemistry, Faculty of Dentistry, Jamia Millia Islamia, Jamia Nagar, New Delhi, India;1. CNR-IFC, Institute of Clinical Physiology, Clinical Epidemiology and Physiopathology of Renal Diseases and Hypertension, Reggio Calabria, Italy;2. Division of Vascular Surgery, Department of Clinical and Experimental Sciences, University of Brescia and Spedali Civili Hospital, Brescia, Italy;3. Section of Pathology, University of Brescia, Italy;4. Unità Operativa di Nefrologia e Trapianto renale, Grande Ospedale Metropolitano, Reggio Calabria, Italy;5. Division of Nephrology, Department of Internal Medicine, Koc University School of Medicine, Istanbul 34010, Turkey;6. Ethics Committee, University of Brescia and Spedali Civili Hospital, Brescia, Italy;7. Renal Research Institute, New York, USA and Institute of Molecular Biology and Genetics (BIOGEM), Ariano Iripino, Italy and Associazione Ipertensione Nefrologia e Trapianto Renale (IPNET), Reggio Calabria, Italy;1. Department of Cardiology, State Key Laboratory of Cardiovascular Disease, Fuwai Hospital, National Center for Cardiovascular Disease, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences and Peking Union Medical College, Beijing, 100037, China;2. Department of Cardiology, The First Affiliated Hospital of Baotou Medical College, Baotou, Inner Mongolia, China;3. Department of Anesthesiology, State Key Laboratory of Cardiovascular Disease, Fuwai Hospital, National Center for Cardiovascular Disease, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences and Peking Union Medical College, Beijing, 100037, China |
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| Abstract: | Background and aimsThe longitudinal trajectories of body mass index (BMI) can reflect the pattern of BMI changes. Lifetime risk quantifies the cumulative risk of developing a disease over the remaining life of a person. We aimed to identify the trajectory of BMI and explore its association with cardiovascular disease (CVD) in the Chinese population.Methods and resultsA total of 68,603 participants with a mean age of 55.46 years were included from the Kailuan cohort in Tangshan, China, who were free of CVD and cancer and with repeated measurements of BMI from 2006 to 2010. A latent mixture model was used to identify BMI trajectories. An improved Kaplan-Meier estimator was used to predict the lifetime risk of CVD according to BMI trajectories. During a median follow-up of 7.0 years, 3325 participants developed CVD. Five BMI trajectories were identified at three index ages (35, 45, and 55) respectively. For index age 35 years, compared with the stable low-normal weight group (22.7% 95% CI, 20.0%–25.4%]), the stable high-normal weight (27.6% 25.6%–29.5%]), stable overweight (29.4% 27.4%–31.4%]), stable-low obesity (32.8% 30.0%–35.5%]), and stable-high obesity (38.9% 33.3%–44.5%]) groups had a higher lifetime risk of CVD (P < 0.05). We observed similar patterns for stroke and myocardial infarction. Similarly, the lifetime risk of CVD was higher in the long-term overweight and obese groups at 45 and 55 index ages.ConclusionsLong-term overweight and obesity were associated with an increased lifetime risk of CVD. Our findings could assist in predicting the population burden of CVD. |
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| Keywords: | Lifetime risk Cardiovascular disease (CVD) Trajectory analysis Body mass index (BMI) BMI"} {"#name":"keyword" "$":{"id":"kwrd0035"} "$$":[{"#name":"text" "_":"body mass index CVD"} {"#name":"keyword" "$":{"id":"kwrd0045"} "$$":[{"#name":"text" "_":"cardiovascular disease MI"} {"#name":"keyword" "$":{"id":"kwrd0055"} "$$":[{"#name":"text" "_":"myocardial infarction LR"} {"#name":"keyword" "$":{"id":"kwrd0065"} "$$":[{"#name":"text" "_":"lifetime risk |
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