安徽省叶酸服用行为与神经管畸形发生率的线性关系分析

目的:探讨安徽省叶酸服用行为与神经管畸形发生率之间的线性关系,为评价增补叶酸预防神经管缺陷项目(简称叶酸项目)的效果提供依据。方法:利用安徽省叶酸项目报表中2009年-2015年叶酸服用人数和服用依从人数,及安徽省出生缺陷监测项目报表中2009年-2015年神经管畸形发生率,分别对叶酸服用人数和服用依从人数与神经管畸形发生率进行线性分析。结果:2009年-2015年安徽省叶酸项目报告的叶酸服用人数和服用依从人数逐年上升,农村地区的服用人数和服用依从人数均高于城市地区。全省神经管畸形发生率呈现下降趋势(趋势χ~2=15.33,P0.001),其中城市地区呈现波动状态(趋势χ~2=0.17,P=0.677),农村地区呈现下降趋势(趋势χ~2=26.06,P0.001)。全省城乡神经管畸形发生率差距越来越小,从2009年的5.84/万减少到2015年的0.64/万。农村叶酸服用依从人数与农村神经管畸形发生率呈现良好的线性关系(Y=13.12-2.36X,调整R~2=0.94)。结论:叶酸项目在农村地区发挥着重要作用,缩小了城乡神经管畸形发生率的差距。提高叶酸服用的依从性是叶酸项目成功的关键。

Linear relation analysis of the number of women taking folic acid and the rate of neonatal neural tube defects in Anhui province

Objective:To explore the linear relation between the number of women taking folic acid and the rate of neo-natal neural tube defects (NTD) in Anhui province,and to provide evidence for evaluation of the effect of the project of taking folic acid to prevent neural tube defects (folic acid project).Methods:The data of women who took folic acid and data of women who had good compliance of taking folic acid were selected from the report of folic acid project since 2009 to 2015.And the NTD rate was selected from the birth defect surveillance system since 2009 to 2015.The linear relations analysis between the number of women who took folic acid and NTD rate was analyzed,and the linear relations between the number of women who had good compliance of taking folic acid and NTD rate was also analyzed.Results:From 2009 to 2015,the number of women who took folic acid and the number of women who had good compliance of taking folic acid were both increasing year by year.The number of women who took folic acid and the number of women who had good compliance of taking folic acid in rural were higher than those in urban.The total NTD rate was decreasing (x2=15.33,P＜0.001),that in urban was fluctuating (x2 =0.17,P=0.677) and that in rural NTD was decreasing (x2 =26.06,P＜0.001).The gap of NTD rate between urban and rural had decreased from 5.84/10000 in 2009 to 0.64/10000 in 2015.In rural,the number of women who had good compliance of taking folic acid and NTD rate had preferable linear relations (Y=13.12 2.36X,adjR2 =0.94,P＜0.001).Conclusion:In Anhui province,there was a linear relation between the number of women who has good compliance of taking folic acid and NTD rate by the birth defect surveillance system reported.The folic acid project plays an important role for reducing NTD rate in rural areas,and the gap between urban and rural areas has reduced.Increasing compliance of women taking folic acid is the key for implementation the folic acid project successfully.