中央转移支付对地方对政府卫生支出的影响机制及实证分析

利用30个省市2003-2014年面板数据研究了中央转移支付对于地方政府卫生支出的影响。实证结果表明，无论是比重指标还是人均指标，中央转移支付对地方政府卫生支出促进效应有限；人均转移支付指标促进效应要优于转移支付比重指标；转移支付的使用效果存在显著的地区差异；人均GDP、人均财政收入、政策冲击、每万人口医疗技术人员与老年人口抚养比均对地方政府卫生支出有显著促进效应，FDI水平对地方政府卫生支出有显著的阻滞效应。政策性建议是加强中央转移支付用于卫生支出使用的透明度管理，强化地方政府的问责机制；以效率和公平为政策导向谨慎调整中央转移支付内部结构；中央转移支付政策供给应当寻求精细化；中央转移支付政策要同其他政策配套实施。

The Mechanism and Empirical Analysis of the Way Central Transfer Payment Affects Local Government Health Expenditure

According to data from the year of 2003 to 2014 in 30 provinces,this paper investigates the effect of center transfer payment on local government health expenditure in China.The results showed that center transfer payment only have little positive effect on local government health expenditure.And it has better effect of the per capita indicator than the proportion indicator.Besides the effect of center transfer payment varies among different regions:It has better effect in undeveloped regions than in developed regions.In particularly,the results showed that per capita GDP,per capita fiscal revenue,policy shocks,medical technical personnel per million people,elderly population dependency ratio have positive effect on local government health expenditure;however,FDI has negative effect on local government health expenditure.Policy recommendation is that we should make the local governments more accountable,carefully adjust the internal structure of the central transfer payment,and the central transfer payment policy provision should seek the fine and be carried out with other policies.