广东省登革热流行与伊蚊种群随气候因素变化的相互关系

为探索登革热发病与伊蚊种群动态变化和气候因素的关系 ,为登革热的防治和监测提供科学依据 ,收集广东省 1990～ 2 0 0 1年的登革热发病资料 ,及潮州市 1995～ 2 0 0 1年伊蚊媒介监测资料及同期的平均气温、最低气温、最高气温、日照时间、降雨量、相对湿度等气象资料 ,用相关分析和多元逐步回归分析的方法进行分析。结果显示 ,登革热发病的Logistic回归方程 :p(1) =1 1+e- (- 7 750 +0 391BI) ]。与布雷图指数 (breteauindex,BI)有关的气象因素是 :降雨量 (X2 )、日照时间、降雨天数、平均气温 (X1 )、最低平均气温、相对湿度(X3) ;回归分析得到回归方程 :^YBI=2 4 80 0 +0 82 6X1 +0 0 2 0X2 - 0 418X3。结论 :气候因素对伊蚊媒介密度的影响是复杂的 ,但其主要影响因素是最低平均气温、降雨量、相对湿度 ;影响登革热发病的主要因素是布雷图指数 (BI)。

Relationship of dengue fever epidemic to aedes density changed by climate factors in Guangdong Province

In order to explore and quantify the relation between probability of dengue episode and aedes density, and climate factors, and also, to provide scientific approach for prevention and supervision of dengue fever, data on dengue fever cases, aedes vector's supervision and climate factors such as average air temperature, lowest air temperature, highest air temperature, sunlight, rainfall and relative humidity were collected and, were analyzed by correlation analysis, stepwise regression and logistic regression method. The results showed that the logistic regression equation: p(1)=1/1+e -(-7 750+0 391BI) ] , indicating that meteorology parameter correlating with breteau index(BI) were rainfall, sunlight, average air temperature, lowest average air temperature and relative humidity; by stepwise regression analysis, the regression equation: viz.: BI =24 800+0 826X\-1+0 020X\-2-0 418X 3 , X 1 representing lowest average air temperature, and X 2 representing rainfall and X 3 representing relative humidity. It is suggested that the influence of climate factor on vector aedes density is complicated. But its primary influence factors are lowest average air temperature, rainfall and relative humidity. The primary influence factors of dengue episode are breteau index.