国人早期乳腺癌远处转移预报模型的研究

目的：利用乳腺癌传统临床病理因素建立早期乳腺癌远处转移的预报模型，实现早期乳腺癌患者的“低危组”和“高危组”分类以指导临床个体化治疗。方法：通过多因素Logistic回归分析对早期乳腺癌危险因素进行筛选，在此基础上建立早期乳腺癌远处转移的预报模型，并观察其效果。结果：多因素Logistic回归分析从12个危险因素中筛选出3个建模因子: 腋淋巴结转移、肿块大小和C-erb-B2表达，由此建立Logistic回归模型，该模型回顾性与前瞻性预报的正确率分别为79.3％，69.2％。结论：可以通过预测模型将早期乳腺癌患者分为“低危组”和“高危组”两个亚型，以预测早期乳腺癌远处转移的危险性，该预测模型为乳腺癌患者术后个体化治疗提供了一定依据。

Study on prediction model of metastasis in chinese women with early breast cancer

Objective To establish a prediction model of distant metastasis in early breast cancer by using conventional clinical and pathologic factors so that patients with early breast cancer might be classified as high and low risk groups and individualized therapy could be guided by it. Methods Risk factors related to the status of metastasis in early breast cancer were screened using muhifactorial logistic regression. On this basis, the model for predicting distant metastasis in early breast cancer was established and its effects were observed. Results Muhifactorial logistic regression analysis showed that the number of metastasic axillary lymph nodes, diameter of primary tumor, and level of C-erb-B2 were chosen from 12 risk factors as the modeling factors. Depending on these factors, we established the prediction model. Its accuracy rate for retrospective prediction and for prospective prediction were 79. 3% and 69.2% , respectively. Conclusions The risk of distant metastasis in early breast cancer can be predicted from the predicting model and these patients could be divided into two subgroups--high risk group and low risk group. This model might provide certain evidence for individualized therapy in postoperative breast cancer patients.