用捕获-再捕获方法估计林州市传染病死亡人数

目的应用捕获-再捕获方法估计林州市2004—2005年的传染病死亡人数，以评价死因登记处中传染病死亡数据的完整性。方法收集林州市死因登记处、民政和公安三来源2004—2005年的传染病死亡登记资料。用居住地址、姓名、性别、身份证编码、死亡时间、死亡原因等变量对不同来源数据进行匹配。利用三来源的对数线性泊松模型估计林州市2004—2005年真实的传染病死亡人数。结果在2004—2005年共报告传染病死亡人数为361人；用捕获-再捕获方法估计传染病死亡人数为375人（95％CI：367～393），以此估计值作分母，登记处的漏报率为6．7％，公安、民政和登记处资料合并后的漏报率为3．7％。结论运用捕获-再捕获法对传染病死亡登记进行估计，可以校正因漏报而造成的数值误差，获得较准确的传染病死亡人数。

Estimate of Death Toll from Infectious Diseases by Capture-recapture Method in Linzhou City

Objective To estimate the death toll from infectious diseases in Linzhou City, and to assess the completeness of death registry data using the capture - recapture method, Methods Data about death from infectious diseases from 2004 to 200.5 were collected from death registry, civil administration, and public security organ in Linzhou. Cases from every source were matched on the address, name, sex, ID card, date of death and cause of death. A 3 - source log- linear poisson model was used to estimate the real number of death from infectious diseases from 2004 to 200.5 in Linzhou. Results A total of 361 death cases were reported during the period of 2004-2005 in Linzhou. The capture- recapture method estimated that the total number of death from infectious diseases was 375 （9.5 % CI： 367- 393）. Taking the estimate as denominator, the underreporting rate of the registry office was 6.7 %. After merging the data of public security organs, civil administration, and registry office, the underreporting rate was 3.7 %. Conclusions It is feasible to estimate the real number of death from infectious diseases and to correct data bias by applying the capture- recapture method.