城乡老年人长期照护需求溢出:理论分析与实证检验

首先分析了老年人长期照护需求溢出的内在逻辑,构建了影响长期照护需求溢出内在逻辑的分析框架;然后依据中国综合社会调查(CGSS)2015年数据,运用多项有序Logit回归对老年人长期照护需求溢出的影响因素进行分析,得出以下结论:从全体居民来看,年龄、受教育程度、是否参加基本养老保险和政府在老年人生活帮助中的责任与长期照护外溢成正相关,身体健康状况、子女数、个人地位和家庭经济状况与长期照护需求外溢程度呈负相关。然而,城乡居民的照护需求外溢存在显著差异,城市居民长期照护需求外溢的程度要比农村居民高,影响农村居民照护需求外溢的主要是家庭经济状况,影响城市居民照护需求外溢的主要是养老保险和政府在老年人生活帮助中的责任。因此,要弘扬传统的孝文化,重视家庭的作用;理性定位政府责任边界,优先建立补缺型的照护津贴制度;统筹城乡照护服务发展,补齐农村照护短板。

The demand over-flow of long-term care for elderly in urban and rural areas: Theoretical analysis and empirical testing

The objective of this paper is to analyze the inherent logic of the elderly''s long-term care demand over-flow, and to construct an analytical framework that affects the same logic. As of the method used, data from the 2015 China General Social Survey (CGSS) was employed through Multivariate Ordered Logit regression to analyze the influencing factors of the over-flow. After analyzing the influencing factors of elderly long term care demand over-flow, the following results were found:Factors such as total number of residents, age, education level, participation in endowment insurance and government responsibility in supporting the elderly were positively correlated with the long-term care over-flow. On the contrary, other factors including physical health, number of children, personal status and family economic status showed a negative correlation. However, there were significant differences in care demand over-flow among urban and rural residents, whereby the degree was higher with urban elderly residents than with rural elderly residents. The main factor influencing rural elderly residents was found to be the family economic situation, while endowment insurance and government responsibility in supporting the elderly happened to be the main factors affecting the urban side. Therefore, it is necessary to promote traditional filial piety culture and give more value to the role of the family; to precisely locate the boundaries of government responsibility and give priority to the supplementary care allowance system establishment; and to coordinate the development of urban and rural care services while making up for the rural care shortcomings.