某高校甲型H1N1流感传播元胞自动机模拟研究

目的探索元胞自动机（CA）在模拟分析甲型 H1N1 流感暴发传播中的应用价值。方法通过中国知识基础设施工程（CNKI）查询 2009年1月—2015年3月间公开发表的甲型 H1N1 流感相关文献，按纳入标准选择并提取流感疫情数据，并以重庆市某综合性大学2009 年 10 月 12 日—11月 20 日发生的一起甲型H1N1流感疫情为数据原型，利用 Matlab 7.0 软件构建CA模型，对疫情进行模拟和分析。结果该高校共有在校学生17 820名，2009年流感疫情持续时间为 40 d，当近距离有效感染发病率为0.04 时，CA模型对此次疫情的模拟情况最好，基本再生数为 1.202。结论CA在模拟一定条件下经空气传播性疾病的流行特征方面具有一定的可靠性，可为疾病的预防与控制提供参考依据。

Simulation of the epidemic of influenza A(H1N1) in a university using cellular automata model

ObjectiveTo explore the application value of cellular automata(CA) in simulating the epidemic spread of outbreak of influenza A(H1N1).MethodsThe publications regarding influenza A(H1N1) from January 2009 to March 2015 were collected from the China National Knowledge Infrastructure(CNKI), epidemiological data of H1N1 were retrieved according to inclusion criteria, the Matlab 7.0 software was adopted to construct CA model for simulating and analyzing the epidemic of H1N1 occurred in a university in Chongqing between October 12 and November 20,2009.ResultsThere were a total of 17 820 students in this university, the epidemic of influenza lasted 40 days in 2009; When the parameter, the effective infection rate was 0.04, the model of CA fit well, and gave estimate for basic reproduction number (R0) 1.202.ConclusionCA has certain reliability in simulating epidemics of airborne infectious diseases, it can provide reference for the prevention and control of disease.