Computing with evidence: Part II: An evidential approach to predicting metabolic drug–drug interactions

We describe a novel experiment that we conducted with the Drug Interaction Knowledge-base (DIKB) to determine which combinations of evidence enable a rule-based theory of metabolic drug–drug interactions to make the most optimal set of predictions. The focus of the experiment was a group of 16 drugs including six members of the HMG-CoA-reductase inhibitor family (statins). The experiment helped identify evidence-use strategies that enabled the DIKB to predict significantly more interactions present in a validation set than the most rigorous strategy developed by drug experts with no loss of accuracy. The best-performing strategies included evidence types that would normally be of lesser predictive value but that are often more accessible than more rigorous types. Our experimental methods represent a new approach to leveraging the available scientific evidence within a domain where important evidence is often missing or of questionable value for supporting important assertions.