| Abstract: | Despite the widespread application of endoscopy in acute upper gastrointestinal bleeding, there is little evidence of improved survival among those who undergo the procedure. To select high-risk patients who might benefit most from diagnostic and therapeutic endoscopy, the authors developed and validated a scoring system based on prognostic indicators of increased mortality. The scoring system was developed from the best clinical predictors of mortality, determined in a prospective study of consecutive bleeding patients. The model was then tested in a prospective validation phase at three hospitals. Three main factors in the model predict mortality: bleeding, including hematochezia, drop in hematocrit of 5%, short duration of bleeding, absence of melena, and hypotension; liver disease, manifested by prolonged prothrombin time and encephalopathy; and renal disease. Patients determined to be at high risk for death using the scoring system might be candidates for aggressive management and for therapeutic endoscopy. |
