Background on recent trends in mortality in the Netherlands

In the Netherlands, a considerable reduction in the annual number of deaths occurred in 2004. This reduction was largely caused by a decrease in the number of deaths from cardiovascular disease. - The risk of dying from cardiovascular disease has decreased in an almost linear manner during the past few decades. This reduction, which was well above average in the case of ischaemic heart disease, was registered for both sexes and across all age groups. The risk reduction in men aged 30-59 years was particularly large. - The contribution of neoplasms to total mortality continues to increase. However, the risk of dying from certain forms of cancer (lung for men, colon for women, stomach, gall-bladder, breast, prostate, uterus and ovaries) has been decreasing since the 1990s. - The risk of dying from breast cancer has decreased since the end of the 1990s. If present trends continue, Dutch women will be more likely to die from lung cancer than breast cancer from 2007 onwards. - The remarkably low mortality in 2004 may be attributed to the equable climatic conditions and the absence of an influenza epidemic. The drop in mortality was short-lived: in the first quarter of 2005, influenza caused a very strong increase in mortality among those aged over 80 years. - Even a further substantial reduction in mortality risks will not be able to prevent the predicted increase in the annual number of deaths in the Netherlands. This increase is estimated to end by the middle of this century.