区域性大型活动集中式供水卫生安全风险评价指标及模型的建立

目的探讨区域性大型活动集中式供水风险评价指标及模型,确定卫生保障中集中式供水的重点环节,为开展区域性大型活动的饮用水卫生安全保障工作提供科学依据。方法采用Delphi专家咨询法研究适宜的集中式供水风险评价指标体系及其权重;采用综合指数法建立线形风险评价模型。结果确定了集中式供水风险评价的一级指标5项、二级指标20项,以及各项指标的权重。其中一级指标卫生管理、水源管理、建筑设计与卫生设施、生产过程卫生管理、水质管理的平均权重分别为1.94、2.16、1.11、2.09和2.70;建立了线形风险评价模型。结论区域性大型活动集中式供水线形风险评价模型的建立将为区域性大型活动开展集中式供水的卫生保障工作提供科学依据,具有推广应用价值。

Study on the Establishment of Risk Quantitative Evaluation Indicators and Model for the Centralized Water Supply Safety in the Regional Large-scale Events

Objectives To explore the risk quantitative evaluation indicators and model for protecting the centralized water supply safety in the regional large-scale events in order to find the key chains for ensuring the centralized water supply,and to offer scientific evidence for the securing health safety of drinking water in the regional large-scale events.Methods Delphi expert consultation method was adapted to establish the indicator systems of the risk evaluation of the centralized water supply safety in the regional large-scale events,and the weights of indicators to be identified.Furthermore,the comprehensive index method was used to establish the linear risk evaluation model for evaluating the centralized water supply risk for the centralized water supply health security in the regional large-scale events.Results The average length of service of the thirty-two experts was(21.56±6.81) years.The response rates of the two-round consultation from the experts were both 100%,the average coefficient of experts,authorities were both 0.91±0.07,and Kendall,s coefficient were 0.661(χ2=507.628,P<0.01),0.822(χ2=631.242,P<0.01),and opinions among experts tend to be consistent.Five first-class indicators,twenty second-class indicators for risk evaluating the centralized water supply health security,which could seriously influence the regional large-scale events,were determined.And the weights of the indicators were established.The average weights of hygiene management,water sources management,architectural design and sanitary facilities,hygiene management during the production and water quality management were 1.94,2.16,1.11,2.09 and 2.70,respectively.Moreover,the linear risk evaluation model was established.Conclusions The establishment of the risk quantitative evaluation model for the centralized water supply health security in the regional large-scale events provides scientific evidence and technical support for security public health of the regional large-scale events,which was worthy of wide spread.