北京奥运会传染病疫情风险评估指标体系研究

目的研究建立2008年北京奥运会传染性疾病事件风险评估指标体系,评估奥运会赛时传染病事件发生扩散的风险,为奥运会公共卫生安全保障提供科学依据。方法成立奥运会传染病疫情风险评估专题研究小组,收集、分析近10年有关传染病和风险评估资料,确定风险评估指标及指标评判内容。结果初步建立北京奥运会传染病疫情风险评估指标体系,综合考虑确定6个一级指标,并且根据每个指标所涉及的相关内容,确定20个评判指标。传染病疫情事件综合考虑相关因素,结合监测预警分析、历史资料数据分析及专家经验和会商,利用半定量的方法对风险可能性进行五级等级划分。结论2008年北京奥运会传染病疫情风险评估指标体系具有普遍的地区适用性,对于重大活动的保障应对和实施风险管理具有推广作用。

A study of risk assessment indicators system of infectious disease event for 2008 Beijing Olympic Games

OBJECTIVE: To investigate and establish a risk assessment indicator system of infectious disease event for 2008 Beijing Olympic Games and to assess the risk of infectious disease epidemic on 2008 Beijing Olympic Games, as to offering scientific bases for security public health of Olympic Games. METHODS: Risk assessment subject discussion group was constituted to collect all sorts of data of infectious disease and the risk assessment and synthesis were analyzed. Then the expert's opinions were consulted to confirm the entered indicators and the judged content of indicators. RESULTS: A preliminary risk assessment indicator system of infectious disease events of 2008 Beijing Olympic Games was established. The system mainly include six first level indicators and twenty judge indicators altogether. CONCLUSIONS: The risk assessment indicators system of infectious disease event for 2008 Beijing Olympic Games should be considered as all the risk factors and general application characteristics. It might be used in any security procedure of important function and risk management.