Predicting recurrence time of esophageal carcinoma through assessment of histologic factors and DNA ploidy

Cytophotometric analysis of nuclear DNA content was done in 128 patients with squamous cell carcinoma of the esophagus. The relationship among histopathologic features, DNA distribution pattern, and survival time was investigated from the standpoint of recurrence. Of 128 patients, 77 (60.1%) died of recurrence within 2 years after surgery: 16 (12.5%) from 2 to 5 years and two (1.6%) over 5 years. The rate of death of recurrence within 2 years was higher in patients with T4 or N1 than T1, T2, and T3 or N0 (P less than 0.01). Survivors over 5 years more frequently possessed type II DNA pattern than types III and IV (P less than 0.05). The rate of death of recurrence within 2 years was 34.4% in type II, which was lower than the 59.6% rate in type III (P less than 0.05) and the 76.6% rate in type IV (P less than 0.01). Survivors from 2 to 5 years were higher in type III than in type IV (P less than 0.05), and recurrence over 5 years was found only in type II. This inclination was more apparent in those with curative resection. In the patients with type II, careful follow-up may be needed over 5 years for late recurrence. However, in those with type IV, no recurrence over 2 years could be regarded as healed because most of their recurrences occur within 2 years. These findings suggest that the growth rate of esophageal carcinoma should reflect DNA aneuploidy, and the DNA analysis of esophageal carcinoma should be a valuable parameter for postoperative follow-up planning.