公立医院改革背景下吉林省医疗收入结构变化特征及趋势预测分析*

目的：分析公立医院改革背景下吉林省公立医院医疗收入结构变化特征及趋势。方法：基于2014—2020年吉林省公立医院财务数据，运用结构变动分析和灰色预测分析方法对医疗收入及其各明细项收入的结构变化特征及趋势进行研究。结果：2014—2020年，在吉林省公立医院医疗收入结构中，药品收入占比显著下降，医疗服务、卫生材料和检查及化验收入占比总体呈上升趋势；药品收入对整体结构变动度的贡献率最高，其次是卫生材料和检查收入。结论：公立医院改革以来，药品价格改革及医疗服务价格改革成效显著，公立医院医疗收入结构得到一定优化，但其结构调整仍有空间。卫生材料及大型检查费用应得到重点关注，后续应统筹兼顾、综合施策，进一步理顺医疗服务价格比价关系，推动公立医院改革平稳运行。

Analysis on the Changing Characteristics and Trend Prediction of Medical Income Structure in the Context of Public Hospital Reform in Jilin

Objective: To analyze the characteristics and trends of changes in the medical income structure of public hospitals in the context of public hospital reform in Jilin Province. Methods: Based on the financial data of public hospitals in Jilin Province from 2014 to 2020, the structural change characteristics and trends of medical income and its various itemized income were studied by applying structural change analysis and gray prediction analysis. Results: From 2014 to 2020, in the medical revenue structure of public hospitals in Jilin Province, the proportion of drug revenue declined significantly, and the proportion of medical services, health materials and examination and laboratory income generally showed an increasing trend; the contribution of drug income to the overall degree of structural change was the highest, followed by health materials income and examination income. Conclusion: Since the reform of public hospitals, drug price reform and medical service price reform have been effective, and the medical income structure of public hospitals has been optimized. However, there is still room for its structural adjustment. The costs of health materials and large-scale examinations should be given particular attention, and comprehensive measures should be taken to further straighten out the price ratio relationship of medical services and promote the smooth operation of public hospital reform.