| ARIMA模型在细菌性痢疾预测中的应用 |
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| 引用本文： | 刘重程,李宏通,唐雅清,隋吉林,王瑞琴.ARIMA模型在细菌性痢疾预测中的应用[J].中国预防医学杂志,2011(10):842-844. |
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| 作者姓名： | 刘重程 李宏通 唐雅清 隋吉林 王瑞琴 |
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| 作者单位： | 北京市昌平区疾病预防控制中心; |
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| 摘 要： | 目的构建北京市昌平区细菌性痢疾月发病的ARIMA模型,为防控工作提供依据。方法应用SPSS 18.0软件分析2004-2010年北京市昌平区细菌性痢疾月发病数资料,构建ARIMA乘积模型,并预测2011年细菌性痢疾月发病数。结果最优乘积模型为ARIMA(1,0,0)(1,1,1)12,模型具有较高的预测精度,预测值与实际值基本吻合,且实际值均在预测值可信区间范围内。结论 ARIMA模型能够应用于北京市昌平区细菌性痢疾流行趋势的预测及疫情的预警、预报,为实施干预提供依据。
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| 关 键 词： | ARIMA模型 时间序列 细菌性痢疾 预测 |
Application of ARIMA model in the forecasting of bacillary dysentery |
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| LIU Zhong-cheng,LI Hong-tong,TANG Ya-qing,SUI Ji-lin,WANG Rui-qin.Application of ARIMA model in the forecasting of bacillary dysentery[J].China Preventive Medicine,2011(10):842-844. |
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| Authors: | LIU Zhong-cheng LI Hong-tong TANG Ya-qing SUI Ji-lin WANG Rui-qin |
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| Institution: | LIU Zhong-cheng,LI Hong-tong,TANG Ya-qing,SUI Ji-lin,WANG Rui-qin.Beijing Changping District Centers for Disease Control and Prevention,Beijing102200,China |
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| Abstract: | Objective To establish an ARIMA model for the prediction of monthly incidence of bacillary dysentery in Changping District,Beijing,and provide evidence for the prevention and control of the disease.Methods The incidence data of bacillary dysentery were collected from 2004 to 2010 in Changping District,Beijing.An ARIMA model was constructed to forecast the monthly case numbers of bacillary dysentery in 2011 with SPSS 18.0 software.Results The best model was ARIMA(1,0,0)(1,1,1)12,which had a good match with t... |
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| Keywords: | ARIMA model Time series analysis Bacillary dysentery Forecasting |
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