广西六县（区）2008—2016年结直肠癌死亡分析及趋势预测

目的 了解广西6县（区）居民结直肠癌死亡情况,并对死亡发展趋势进行预测,从而为进一步制定结直肠癌防控策略提供参考。 方法 采用国际疾病分类ICD-10对所患疾病进行死因编码,用Excel2010进行统计分析;应用灰色系统GM(1,1)模型,建立结直肠癌死亡率预测模型。 结果 广西6县（区）结直肠癌2008—2016年年均死亡率为9.05/10万,城市居民结直肠癌死亡率明显高于农村居民（P<0.01）,男性结直肠癌死亡率明显高于女性（P<0.01）;居民结直肠癌的死亡率从50岁后随年龄增长呈现明显升高趋势,85岁达高峰;2017—2021年死亡率预测结果分别为11.23/10万、11.76/10万、12.32/10万、12.90/10万、13.51/10万。 结论 结直肠癌死亡率呈上升趋势,应以城市、男性、老年居民作为重点关注对象,加强健康教育和社区筛查,有效防治结直肠癌。

Mortality and trend prediction of colorectal cancer in six counties (districts) of Guangxi,2008-2016

Objective To understand the mortality colorectal cancer in 6 counties (districts) of Guangxi, and predict the trend of death, so as to provide reference for further developing colorectal cancer prevention and control strategy. Methods Using ICD-10 to encode the cause of death of the disease and statistical analysis with Excel2010, the mortality prediction model of colorectal cancer was established by using GM ( 1,1 ) model of grey system .Results The average annual mortality rate of colorectal cancer was 9.05/10⁵ in 6 counties (districts) of Guangxi, 2008-2016, the colorectal cancer mortality rate of city residents was significantly higher than that of rural residents (P<0.01), male colorectal cancer mortality was significantly higher than that in female (P<0.01); the mortality rate of colorectal cancer residents from the age of 50 years showed a significantly increasing,reach the peak after 85 years of age. The mortality prediction results were 11.23/10⁵, 11.76/10⁵, 12.32/10⁵, 12.90/10⁵,13.51/10⁵ in 2017-2021 years. Conclusion The mortality of colorectal cancer is on the rise. We should focus on urban, male and elderly residents. We should strengthen health education and community screening to prevent and treat colorectal cancer effectively.