2017-2018天津市流感季流感流行强度研究

目的 采用移动流行区间法(Moving epidemic method,MEM)判断流感活动开始和流感流行强度,为采取公共卫生措施提供理论依据。方法 以天津市2012-2017流感监测年度的流感病毒检测阳性率数据为基线,分析天津市2017-2018年流感季流感流行强度。结果 2017-2018年流感流行季,流感较去年同期(2016-2017年)提前3周进入流行状态。流感在2017年第45周突破流行阈值,持续4周后,第49周直接跨越中等流行进入高等流行,第50周进入非常高流行,并持续6周(2017年第50 ~52周,2018年第1~3周),2018年第4周跌至中等流行阶段,2018年第8周进入低等流行阶段,2018年第12周跌破流行阈值。结论 移动流行区间法,可以客观评价流感活动开始和流感流行强度,为比较国家与地区之间流感流行强度提供标准化方法。

Influenza intensity level in Tianjin during 2017-2018 influenza season

The intensity of influenza activity was estimated on moving epidemic method, providing the theoretical basis for taking public health measures. The intensity of 2017-2018 influenza season in Tianjin based on 2012-2017 influenza virus positive rate was estimated. Influenza entered epidemic level early 3 weeks in 2017-2018 influenza seasons than the last influenza season. The influenza activity breached into epidemic threshold on the 45^h week, 2017; the high epidemic was observed on the 49^th week, 2017, and the very high epidemic was on the 50^th week, 2017 and until the 3^st week, 2018. The influenza decreased into middle epidemic on the 4^h week, 2018. The influenza activity entered into low epidemic period on the 8^th and broken the epidemic value on the 2018 12^th. The MEM based on influenza virus positive rate may objectively evaluate the start and intensity of influenza, and standardized the criteria for comparing the intensity of influenza epidemics between countries and regions.