2006-2015年重庆市结直肠肛门癌发病趋势分析

目的:了解重庆市结直肠肛门癌发病趋势变化。方法:采用国际疾病分类(ICD-10)与国际肿瘤学分类（ICD-0-3）整理分析重庆市11个肿瘤登记点2006至2015年结直肠肛门癌发病资料，数据采用SPSS 19.0统计分析发病率、中国标化发病率（中标率）、年度变化百分比(APC)、截缩率与累积危险度，趋势变化采用曲线估计指数分布回归模型进行判别。结果:重庆市结直肠肛门癌发病率由2006年的14.15/105上升至2015年的28.32/105，中标率与世界标化发病率（世标率）均呈上升的趋势，APC分别为7.68%、4.08%与3.77%，差异有统计学意义（P＜0.05）。结直肠肛门癌男性发病率高于女性（t=6.99,P＜0.001），城市发病率高于农村(t=5.48,P＜0.001)。结直肠肛门癌45岁前发病率低于20/105,45岁后发病率呈现快速上升，80～＜85岁年龄组达到高峰。60～＜65岁、65～＜70岁、70～＜75岁年龄组发病率呈上升的趋势，年度变化百分比（APC)分别为6.29%、5.76%与4.60%，差异有统计学意义（P＜0.05）。重庆市结直肠肛门癌35~64岁截缩率从2006年的13.94/105上升至2015年的25.77/105，APC为4.60%，差异有统计学意义（P＜0.05）。累积率与累积危险度分别由2006年的1.37%、1.36%上升至2015年的2.10%与2.08%，变化趋势差异有统计学意义（P＜0.05）。结论:重庆市结直肠肛门癌发病率处于全国的平均水平，并呈上升的趋势，应尽早开展结直肠肛门癌的三级预防。

Analysis of incidence and trend of colorectal cancer from 2006 to 2015 in Chongqing municipality

Objective:To analyze the incidence and its trend of colorectal cancer in Chongqing is to provide the suggestion for colorectal cancer prevention and control.Methods:The data of colorectal cancer from 11 cancer registration sites were sorted by the international category of disease(ICD-10)and the international category of tumor(ICD-O-3).The indicators such as incidence,age-specific standardized incidence rate by Chinese standard population(ASIRC)and World standard population(ASIRW),annual percent change(APC),truncated age standardization incidence rate of the age group 35~64(TASR)and cumulative risk were calculated by SPSS 19.0.The trend change of incidence,ASIRC,ASIRW,TASR and cumulative risk were identified by curve estimated exponential distribution regression model.Results:The incidence of colorectal cancer in Chongqing increased from 14.15/105 in 2006 to 28.32/105 in 2015 significantly(P＜0.05).Its ASIRC and ASIRW increased significantly(P＜0.05).And their APC was 7.68%,4.08% and 3.77%.The incidence of colorectal cancer among male residents was higher than it among female residents(t=6.99,P＜0.001).The incidence of colorectal cancer in urban area was higher than it in rural area(t=5.48,P＜0.001).The incidence of colorectal cancer before 45 years old was below 20/105.After 45 years old,the incidence of colorectal cancer increased rapidly and reached the top in age group of 80 years old.The incidence of colorectal cancer increased significantly in age group of 60,65 and 70 years old.And its APC were 6.29%,5.76% and 4.60%.TASR increased from 13.94/105 in 2006 to 25.77/105 in 2015 significantly(P＜0.05),and its APC was 4.60%.The cumulative rate and cumulative risk of colorectal cancer increased from 1.37% and 1.36% in 2006 to 2.10% and 2.08% in 2015 significantly(P＜0.05).Conclusion:The incidence of colorectal cancer in Chongqing was equal to national level.Moreover,the incidence of colorectal cancer increased in Chongqing.Tertiary prevention of colorectal cancer should be conducted as soon as possible.