| Abstract: | Background: Esophageal cancer is one of the leading causes of death worldwide. The global increasing rate of thistype of cancer requires more attention. The purpose of this study was to determine the overall survival probability ofesophageal cancer after diagnosis and to assess the potential risk factors in a population of Iranian patients. Materialsand Methods: This retrospective cohort study was conducted on 127 cases with esophageal cancer in the Azarbaijanprovince, East of Iran. Participants in the study were diagnosed during 2009-2010 and were followed up for 5 years. Theevent was considered death due to esophageal cancer and those who survived until the end of the study were assumed asright censored. Censored quntile regression was fitted to find the overall survival of the patients using adjusted effects ofvariables and was compared with Cox regression model. Results: Patients’ mean and median survival time were 16.99and 10.06 months respectively and 89% off cases died by the end of the study. The 1, 3, 6, 12 and 36-month survivalprobabilities were 0.95, 0.76, 0.60, 0.43, and 0.18. The median survival time for females and males without surgerywere 21.79 and 14.76 month respectively. The accuracy of predictions were 0.99 and 0.74 for the censored quantileregression and Cox, respectively. Conclusion: We concluded that being male, not having surgery, longer wait timebetween having symptoms and being diagnosed, low socioeconomic status and old age to be significant risk factors inreducing the probability of survival from esophageal cancer. |
