2010-2015年武汉市梅毒网络报告发病率与人群估计感染率对比分析

目的 对比分析武汉市梅毒报告发病率与人群梅毒估计感染率,评价武汉市梅毒流行特征和趋势。 方法 通过中国疾病预防控制疫情网导出2010-2015年武汉市梅毒病例报告数据,分析网上梅毒报告发病率变化趋势。通过武汉市疾控中心获得四类高危人群的人群规模和感染率数据,通过武汉市21家医疗机构收集献血者、住院病人、孕产妇开展梅毒筛查检测的数据。应用Workbook法,估计武汉市全人群梅毒感染率,并分析其变化趋势。 结果 2010-2015年,武汉市显性梅毒报告发病率呈下降趋势(Z_趋势=-25.206,P<0.01),隐性梅毒报告发病率呈上升趋势(Z_趋势=8.639,P<0.01),全人群梅毒感染率呈上升趋势(Z_趋势=185.036,P<0.01)。隐性梅毒报告发病率和全人群梅毒感染率之间相关性差异有统计学意义(T=4.24,P=0.0133)。 结论 人群梅毒感染率估计是对网上梅毒报告数据的重要补充,有助于对梅毒疫情变化趋势进行客观的解读。

Comparative analysis of online-reported incidence rates of syphilis andestimated infection rates based on population in Wuhan City, 2010-2015

Objective To compare and analyze the reported incidence rates of syphilis and its estimated infection rates based on population in Wuhan City, and to evaluate the epidemiological characteristics and trend of syphilis in Wuhan City. Methods The data regarding the reported syphilis cases in Wuhan City during 2010-2015 were derived from China Disease Prevention and Control Reporting System, and the changing trend of online-reported incidence rates of syphilis was analyzed. The data related to population sizes and infection rates of four types of high-risk groups were obtained from Wuhan Municipal Center for Disease Control and Prevention. The data concerning syphilis screening tests in blood donors, inpatients, pregnant women and puerperae were collected from 21 medical institutions in Wuhan City. The workbook method was employed to estimate the infection rates of the whole population in Wuhan City, and the trends were analyzed. Results The reported incidence rates of expressive syphilis in Wuhan City during 2010-2015 showed a downward tendency (Z_tendency=-25.206, P<0.01), while the reported incidence rates of latent syphilis and the infection rates of syphilis in the whole population showed an upward tendency (Z_tendency= 8.639, P<0.01; Z_tendency=185.036, P<0.01). There was a statistically significant difference in the correlation between the reported incidence rates of latent syphilis and the infection rates of syphilis in the whole population (T=4.24, P=0.0133). Conclusions Estimating the infection rate of syphilis in the population is an important supplement to the data of online-reported syphilis incidence, which will contribute to objectively analyzing the changing trend of syphilis epidemic.