人口老龄化对重庆市肺癌发病影响的定量分析

目的]了解重庆市肺癌发病变化人口老龄化与其他危险因素的贡献率,为制定肺癌的防治策略提供依据.方法]收集整理2006～2015年重庆市11个肿瘤登记点ICD-10编码为C33、C34的所有气管、支气管、肺癌的个案资料.计算粗发病率、中国人口标化发病率(中标率)、年度变化百分比.发病率趋势变化的比较采用曲线估计指数分布回归模型进行判别.利用恶性肿瘤发病率差别分解法计算出人口老龄化和其他危险因素对2006年与2015年肺癌发病变化的贡献值与贡献率.结果]重庆市肺癌发病率由2006年的37.52/10万上升至2015年的68.17/10万,APC为5.23％,变化趋势差异有统计学意义(F=31.14,P=0.001).中标率由2006年的32.86/10万上升至2015年的41.04/10万,变化趋势差异无统计学意义(F=1.75,P=0.223).男、女性以及农村地区肺癌发病率均呈上升的趋势,APC分别为5.23％、5.02％、7.04％,变化趋势差异均有统计学意义(F值分别为27.25、17.57、61.64,P均＜0.05).2006年与2015年肺癌发病率变化中人口老龄化与其他危险因素的贡献率分别为65.50％与34.50％,男性人口老龄化的贡献率(83.58％)高于其他危险因素(16.42％),女性肺癌发病率的变化其他危险因素的贡献率(56.63％)高于人口老龄化的贡献率(43.37％),城市与农村人口老龄化的贡献率(55.44％、69.83％)均高于其他危险因素的贡献率(44.56％、30.17％).结论]重庆市肺癌发病率高并呈持续上升的趋势,肺癌发病率上升受人口老龄化与其他危险因素的协同作用,但人口老龄化是主要因素.

Impact of Aging on Incidence of Lung Cancer in Chongqing Municipality

Purpose] To investigate the contribution rate of demographic and non-demographic factors to the incidence of lung cancer in Chongqing Municipality.Methods] Lung cancer cases(ICD-10:C33,C34) reported from 2006 to 2015 were collected from 11 cancer registration sites in Chongqing Municipality.The data were analyzed and the crude incidence,age-specific standardized rate by Chinese standard population ASR China,annual percent change (APC) of lung cancer were calculated.The incidence trend of lung cancer was identified by curve estimated exponential distribntion regression model.The difference decomposing of the incidence of lung cancer between 2006 and 2015 was used to estimate the contribution of population aging and other risk factors for the incidence change of lung cancer.Results] The erude incidence of lung cancer increased from 37.52/105 in 2006 to 68.17/105 in 2015 significantly (F=31.14,P=0.001),and its APC was 5.23％.The ASR China of lung cancer increased from 32.86/105 in 2006 to 41.04/105 in 2015 (F=1.75,P=0.223).The crude incidence of lung cancer in male,female and rural area increased significantly(F value:27.25,17.57 and 61.64,P＜0.05).The contribution rate of population aging and other risk factors for the rising of lung cancer incidence was 65.50％ and 34.50％ between 2006 and 2015.The contribution rate of population aging(83.58％) was higher than other risk factors(16.42％) among male residents.However,the contribution rate of other risk factors(56.63％) was higher than population aging (43.37％) among female residents.The contribution rate of population aging (55.44％,69.83％) was higher than other risk factors (44.56％,30.17％) in urban and rural area,respectively.Conclusion] The crude incidence of lung cancer is high and increases constantly.The rising of lung cancer incidence is co-affected by population aging and other risk factors,but population aging is the major one.