Prediction of chronic neonatal lung disease on day 4 of life

Clinical parameters, available on day 4, were collected for 204 ventilated neonates <32 weeks gestation. Logistic regression was used to identify factors significantly and independently associated with chronic neonatal lung disease (CNLD) at 36 weeks postconception, which developed in 29% of neonates. At 36 weeks birth weight, peak inspiratory ventilator pressure and requirement for assisted ventilation on day 4 were such factors. The logistic regression equation for this association was applied to each infant resulting in a value between 0 and 1. By knowing which neonates developed CNLD, the discriminatory ability of this value was assessed. A receiver-operator characteristic curve for this value had an area under the curve of 0.97 (SE 0.03) in an unrelated population. A logistic equation value >0.4 had a sensitivity of 90% and a specificity of 88% in predicting CNLD at 36 weeks.