济宁地区肾综合征出血热发病的气象因素分析

目的 对2004-2014年济宁地区11个县市区的气象资料以及肾综合征出血热发病资料进行分析,探讨气象因素对肾综合征出血热发病的影响。方法 分析2004-2014年济宁地区肾综合征出血热病例共计895例,同时收集同期的气象数据,应用Cochran-Armitage趋势检验分析肾综合征出血热发病人数与气象因素的变化趋势,应用Spearman等级相关法分析肾综合征出血热传播与气象因素的相关性。结果 2004-2014年济宁地区肾综合征出血热发病地域性明显,主要集中在西南和东北部;肾综合征出血热在济宁地区发病仍然呈现与以往相似的发病季节特点,大部分县区年发病人数与气象因素之间的无相关性,而月发病人数与气象因素间的相关性较大。肾综合征出血热月发病人数在济宁地区与气温、降水和湿度总体均呈负相关。结论 气象因素对济宁地区肾综合征出血热发病存在明显影响,通过对气象因素的各种预报,对本地区肾综合征出血热的流行趋势进行预测并采取针对性防控措施,可减少肾综合征出血热的发病与流行。

Meteorological factors on the incidence of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome in Jining

Objective To analysis the meteorological data and the incidence of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome in 11 counties of Jining region from 2004 to 2014,and to investigate the influence of meteorological factors on the incidence of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome. Methods The data of 895 cases of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome in Jining region during the period of 2004-2014 was analyzed,and the meteorological data of the same period was collected.The changing trend of the incidence cases in hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome and meteorological factors was analyzed using Cochran-Armitage trend test,and the correlation between the transmission of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome and meteorological factors was analyzed by Spearman rank correlation. Results The regional characteristics of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome in Jining region were obvious in 2004-2014,and mainly concentrated in the southwest and the northeast.The incidence of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome in Jining region was still similar to that in the past.Meanwhile,annual incidence and meteorological factors had no correlation in most counties,however,the monthly incidence got relatively larger associativity with climatic factors.The monthly incidence of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome in Jining area generally showed negative correlation with air temperature,precipitation,and humidity. Conclusion The meteorological factors have an obvious influence on the incidence of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome in Jining area.For hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome,we can predict the epidemic tendency,and take the prevention and control measures to reduce the incidence and prevalence,by various forecasts of meteorological factors.