信阳市发热伴血小板减少综合征发病季节性特征研究

目的 分析发热伴血小板减少综合征（FTLS）季节性特征。方法 FTLS疫情资料来源于国家疾病监测信息报告管理系统,应用集中度、季节指数和圆形分布法分析FTLS季节性分布特征。结果 2009-2014年,信阳市共报告FTLS病例2 901例,发病呈逐年上升趋势(Z=23.822,P<0.001)。2009-2014年各年度FTLS集中度M〖WTBZ〗值分别为0.564、0.557、0.636、0.645、0.561和0.566,平均值为0.585。不同月份和季度的季节指数均不相同。5月份季节指数最大,为292.04%;2月份季节指数最小,为0.41%。第1-4季度各季度季节指数分别为5.24%、213.03%、142.71%和39.02%。2009-2014年信阳市各年份FTLS发病均存在集中趋势（雷氏检验P值均<0.05）,6年间信阳市FTLS流行高峰期为4月27日-8月25日。应用Watson-Williams检验对不同年份的平均角α进行检验,F=7.036,P<0.05,不同年份FTLS发病高峰日不完全相同。实际流行高峰期与圆形分布拟合的流行高峰期开始时间基本一致,从4月下旬或5月上旬开始,但持续时间延长,最长持续至10月上旬。结论 信阳市FTLS发病具有明显的季节性,发病高峰出现在第2季度,可用圆形分布法来粗略估计其流行高峰期。

Seasonal characteristics of fever,thrombocytopenia and leukopenia syndrome,Xinyang City

Objective To analyze the seasonal characteristics of fever,thrombocytopenia and leukopenia syndrome (FTLS) in Xinyang City,Henan province. Methods The surveillance data of FTLS was collected from National Disease Surveillance Management Information System.The seasonal characteristics of FTLS were analyzed using concentration degree,seasonal index and circular distribution methods. Results A total of 2 901 cases of FTLS cases were reported in Xinyang City during 2009-2014.There was an upward trend for an incidence rate of FTLS (Z=23.822,P<0.001).The annual M values of concentration degree from 2009 to 2014 were 0.564,0.557,0.636,0.645,0.561 and 0.566,respectively.The mean value of M was 0.585.Different months and quarters had different seasonal indexes.The maximum and minimum values of seasonal indexes were 292.04% (in May) and 0.41% (in February).The quarterly seasonal indexes were 5.24%,213.03%,142.71% and 5.24%,respectively.The incidence of FTLS had central tendency from 2009 to 2014.FTLS disease suffers from (P values of Rayleigh′ test were all <0.05).The incidence peak of FTLS was from April 27th to August 25th during 2009-2014.Compared with mean angles for different years using Watson - Williams test,F value was 7.036,and P value was smaller than 0.05.The incidence peaks of FTLS in different years were not completely the same.The actual epidemic peak was almost the same as the peak fitting with circular distribution.However,the actual epidemic peak lasted longer,which was from in late April or early May to early October. Conclusion FTLS in Xinyang has obvious seasonal characteristics.The incidence peak appears in the second quarter.The epidemic peak could be estimated with circular distribution method.