基于SEER数据库的炎性乳腺癌生存预测风险模型的建立与验证

目的:建立可预测炎性乳腺癌(inflammatory breast cancer,IBC)生存情况的风险模型.方法:利用监测、流行病学和结果(Surveillance,Epidemiology and End Results,SEER)数据库,筛选2010年至2015年诊断为IBC的病例,通过单因素和Logistic多...

Establishment and validation of a nomogram to predict cancer-specific survival for patients with inflammatory breast cancer based on SEER database

Objective:To establish a risk model to predict inflammatory breast cancer(IBC)survival.Methods:The cases diagnosed as IBC from 2010 to 2015 were screened using Surveillance,Epidemiology and End Results(SEER)database.Univariate and Logistic multivariate regression analysis were performed to identify the independent risk factors related to IBC survival and further establish a nomogram to predict 1-,3-,and 5-year cancer-specific survival(CSS)of IBC patients.Harrell's C-index and calibration curve were used to validate the nomogram.Results:A total of 2754 IBC cases that met the inclusion criteria were screened out,and 1933 cases were randomly selected as the training set and 821 cases were selected as validation set.Univariate and multivariate analyses showed that age,race,histological grade,N stage,M stage,breast subtype,surgery,radiotherapy and chemotherapy were independent risk factors significantly associated CSS.The internally and externally validated Harrell's C-indexes were 0.731(95%CI:0.714~0.749)and 0.752(95%CI:0.777~0.727).The calibration curve showed that the prediction fits well for the 1-,3-,and 5-year CSS.Conclusion:Age,race,histological grade,N stage,M stage,breast subtype,surgery,radiotherapy and chemotherapy are independent risk factors affecting the survival of IBC patients.The nomogram constructed based on the risk factors can better evaluate the survival of IBC patients individually.