广州市5757例手足口病肠道病毒与气候因素的相关性

目的探究气候因素对手足口病肠道病毒感染的影响。方法收集2009～2011年广州市的气候及某医院实验室诊断手足口病病例数据,应用单因素相关、多元线性回归检验气候因素与各肠道病毒报告例数之间的关联,并应用亚组分析探索影响的滞后作用。结果单因素分析结果表明周平均气温、湿度和露点与EV71、Cox A16和其他肠道病毒周报告例数存在正相关性,气压成负相关（P〈0.05）。控制其他气候因素后,湿度、气温分别与EV71、Cox A16和其他肠道病毒例数有显著性联系,且亚组分析证实与2～3周后的例数关联最强（P〈0.05）。结论气候因素,尤其湿度、气温可影响手足口病肠道病毒感染,在高热高湿度的季节,预防控制措施更可减少感染手足口病肠道病毒的危险性。

Relationship between meteorological factors and the classification of 5 757 entervirus causing hand-foot-month disease in Guangzhou

Object To assess the effect of meteorological parameters on the activity of enteroviruses caused hand foot and mouth disease（HFMD）.Methods Meteorological parameters data were collected from Guangzhou Observatoryduring 2009-2011 were analyzed for correlation with HFMD cases in a maternal and and a children hospital in Guangzhou.The relationship between the meteorological parameters and various enteroviruses cases were explored with Spearman’s rank correlation and multiple linear regression,and repeated the regression using HFMD enteroviruses data with 1,2,3 and 4 weeks lag time to explore the lag-effects of meteorological parameters on the activity of enteroviruses.Results Univariate analysis indicated that weekly mean temperature,relative humidity and dew point were positively correlated with HFMD cases,and the effect of atmospheric pressure were negative（P〈0.05）.After adjusting other meteorological parameters,relative humidity and temperature were positively associated with HFMD cases,and explained the enteroviruses activity well with 2-3 weeks’ lag time（P〈0.05）.Conclusion Meteorological parameters,especially relative humidity and temperature could affect HFMD enteroviruses activity,preventive measures are more important in higher humid and hot season.