The natural history of moderate (50% to 79%) internal carotid artery stenosis in symptomatic,nonhemispheric, and asymptomatic patients

Purpose: This study was undertaken to determine the incidence of disease progression of moderate (50% to 79%) internal carotid artery stenosis in patients with symptoms, patients with nonhemispheric symptoms, and symptom-free patients and to define the risk of development of new neurologic events in each group.Methods: Over a 6-year period, 272 patients with moderate internal carotid artery stenoses were monitored for a mean of 44 months with color-flow duplex scanning (CFS). At the time of the initial scan, 142 patients were symptom free, 87 had experienced transient ischemic attacks, amaurosis fugax, or mild strokes, and 43 had ill-defined nonhemispheric symptoms. The average number of follow-up scans was 2.4 per patient (range 1 to 11).Results: During follow-up, 23 (26%) of the patients with symptoms, 17 (40%) of the patients with nonhemispheric symptoms, and 30 (21%) of the symptom-free patients had development of additional neurologic symptoms. Life-table comparison of ipsilateral ischemic events showed a significantly (p = 0.03) higher cumulative rate in the symptomatic group (20%) than in the asymptomatic group (7%) at 2 years. Mean annual stroke rates were 6% and 2% in patients in the symptomatic and asymptomatic groups, respectively. None of the patients in the nonhemispheric group had a stroke within 4 years of the initial study. Disease progression occurred in 16% of the patients. In the asymptomatic group, ipsilateral stroke occurred more frequently (p = 0.0001) in patients with disease progression (25%) than in patients with stable lesions (1%). CFS detected disease progression in 19 (79%) of 24 patients before the artery occluded or stroke occurred. In patients with symptoms, stroke was more frequent (p = 0.02) in patients with six or more risk factors (29%) than in those with five or fewer risk factors (7%).Conclusion: Although the risk of stroke is less in patients with moderate stenosis than it is in patients with severely stenotic lesions, symptom-free patients with advancing disease and patients with symptoms and multiple risk factors are at increased risk for development of neurologic events. These findings support the use of CFS to monitor patients with carotid artery disease and suggest that a more aggressive surgical approach may be indicated in selected patients with moderate carotid artery stenosis. (J VASC SURG 1995;21:346-57.)