扬中市1991-2015年肝癌发病及死亡趋势分析

目的 分析江苏省扬中市1991-2015年肝癌发病和死亡的长期时间变化趋势和分布特征.方法 根据1991-2015年江苏省扬中市肝癌发病与死亡登记资料,运用Joinpoint回归模型拟合肝癌发病与死亡趋势,同时运用年龄-时期-出生队列(APC)模型,评估年龄、时期和出生队列对发病和死亡趋势的影响.结果 1991-201...

Analysis of the trend of liver cancer incidence and mortality from 1991 to 2015 in Yangzhong City,Jiangsu Province

Objective To analyze the long-term trend and distribution of the incidence and mortality of liver cancer in Yangzhong city,Jiangsu province from 1991 to 2015.Methods Based on the registration data of the incidence and mortality of liver cancer in Yangzhong City,Jiangsu Province from 1991 to 2015,the joinpoint regression model was used to fit the incidence and mortality trend of liver cancer,and the age-period-birth cohort(APC)model was used to evaluate the effect of age,period and birth cohort on the incidence and mortality trend of liver cancer.Results From 1991 to 2015,there were1 759 new cases and 1 425 deaths in Yangzhong City,Jiangsu Province.Joinpoint regression analysis showed that from1991 to 2015,the age standardized incidence of liver cancer in men was on the whole decreasing,with an estimated annual percent changes of 2.38%(P<0.01).The age standardized mortality rate of liver cancer in men showed a rapid increase from1991 to 1993,with an estimated annual percent changes of 65.03%(P<0.01).From 1991 to 2015,the age standardized incidence and mortality rate of women showed a steady trend of decline,with estimated annual percent changes of 3.32%and 4.57%(P<0.01),respectively.In the APC model analysis,the incidence and mortality risk of liver cancer was on the rise as age increases,and the results also showed that the period and cohort effect had a certain effect on the incidence and mortality trend of men and women.Conclusions From 1991 to 2015,the incidence of liver cancer in both men and women in Yangzhong City,Jiangsu Province is on the decline,with the male mortality rate first rising rapidly and then declining,and the female mortality rate slowly declining.The number of male incidence and mortality is higher than that of female.While the risk of liver cancer also increases with age.Liver cancer is still the main cause of health hazard.