Physical violence between intimate partners during pregnancy and postpartum: a prediction model for use in primary health care facilities

This article offers a simple predictive model of physical intimate partner violence (PIPV) to be used by primary health care (PHC) professionals. The sample comprised 811 mothers of children <5 months old attending PHC facilities in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. A multinomial logit model was used. Measured by the Revised Conflict Tactics Scales, PIPV was classified in three levels (absence, at least one episode during pregnancy or postpartum, and presence in both periods). Socio-economic, demographic and life style variables were considered as potential predictors. Maternal age <20 years, an education of <8 years of schooling, raising >2 children under 5, tobacco smoking, alcohol misuse and illicit drug use by the mother and/or partner, and perception of baby's ill-health were identified as predictors of PIPV. The model-projected prevalence of PIPV for pregnancy and/or postpartum was just 10.1% in the absence of these characteristics, whereas this increased to 96.4% when all the seven characteristics were present. Child, maternal and family characteristics greatly increase the likelihood of PIPV and could be used together as screening indicators.