广州市2015年大气PM2.5与呼吸系统疾病日门诊量的关系

目的 定量研究广州市大气细颗粒污染物(PM2.5)对呼吸系统疾病门诊量的影响.方法采用环境流行病学方法,收集2015年1月1日-12月31日大气PM2.5等污染物资料、气象资料以及广州市1家三级甲等综合性医院呼吸系统疾病日门诊量资料,采用广义相加模型研究广州市大气PM2.5与呼吸系统疾病日门诊量的关系(同时控制长期趋势、星期几效应和气象因素等混杂因素的影响).结果 2015年广州市大气PM2s平均浓度为38.6.μg/m3,Spearman相关性分析表明,呼吸系统疾病日门诊量与SO2、NO2、CO、气压均成正相关,均有统计学意义(P＜0.05).GAM模型分析结果显示,PM2.5对呼吸系统疾病日门诊量呈现出0～3 d的明显的滞后效应,均有统计学意义.PM2.5滞后1d效应最大,滞后1d时,模型结果预测ER(％)为2.847(1.310,4.408),PM2.5每增加10 μg/m3,呼吸系统疾病门诊量增加2.847％.结论 广州市大气PM2.5与呼吸系统疾病日门诊量成正相关关系,且存在滞后效应.

Relationship between ambient PM2.5 and outpatient visits for respiratory diseases in Guangzhou, 2015

Objective To quantitatively analyze the impact of ambient PM2.5 on hospital outpatient wsits for respiratory diseases.Methods By using the environmental epidemiology method,the daily meteorological and air pollution data in 2015 were obtained from Guangzhou Meteorological Bureau and Guangzhou Environmental Protection Bureau.The daily hospital outpatient visit data in the same duration were collected from one hospital in Guangzhou City.After adjustment for long-term trend,day-of-week,meteorological factors and other air pollutants,the generalized additive model (GAM) was applied to analyze the relationship between the ambient PM2.5 concentration and hospital outpatient visits for respiratory diseases.Results The average PM2.5 concentration was 38.6 μg/m3 in Guangzhou in 2015.The hospital outpatient visits for respiratory diseases was significant correlated with the multiple air pollutants (SO2,NO2,CO,atmospheric pressure) by the Spearman correlation analysis (P＜0.05).The GAM model indicated a positive association between the ambient PM2.5 concentration and hospital outpatient visits for respiratory diseases.The effect of PM2.5 was largest on lag 1 day ER (％)=2.847,95％CI:(1.310,4.408)].A 10 μg/m3 increment of PM2.5 on lag-day one corresponded to a 2.847％ increase in the number of outpatient visits for respiratory diseases.Conclusiorn The ambient PM2.5 concentration is positively associated with the hospital outpatient visits for respiratory diseases in Guangzhou City,and a lag structure is found in these associations.