QUANTITATIVE EVOKED POTENTIAL CORRELATES OF THE PROBABILITY OF EVENTS

A late positive-going component (P₃) of the average evoked potential recorded from human scalp was shown to be quantitatively related to a priori stimulus probability both when the S was told the identity of the stimulus before it was presented and when the S was not told, and was instructed to guess. In the guessing situation, the amplitude of P₃ was much larger and was influenced not only by the a priori probability of events determined by the experimenter but also by the interaction of these probabilities with the S's guessing behavior. The amplitude of the late positive component was inversely related to the proportion of trials in which a particular event was associated with a particular guess, i.e., the proportion of hits and misses. It was larger the more unexpected the outcome of the guess. This relationship held for different methods of manipulating the probability of two events.