肝硬化食管静脉曲张破裂出血患者预后Cox回归分析

Objective To evaluate the risk factors for prognosis in liver cirrhotic patients with acute esophageal variceal bleeding (EVB). Methods Retrospective analysis was carried out in patients with liver cirrhosis,who were admitted to the hospital for EVB between January 2000 and December 2006 . All patients were follow-up to August 31st, 2009. The death of the patients was identified as the end of the study. The vital signs and results of laboratory tests were recorded when patients were admitted to the hospital. Child-Pugh score/grade, model for end stage liver disease (MELD) score and Rockall score were calculated. Results Ninty-five cases (66 males and 29 females) were enrolled in the study. Among them, 60 cases died and 35 cases survived for (42. 61±33.21) months (ranged from 2 days to 114 months). Univariate Cox regression analysis showed that age, male, Child-Pugh score/grade, MELD score, Rockall score, white blood cell counts and active hepatitis B were risk factors for death in liver cirrhotic patients with EVB (P＜0.05), while high level of hemoglobin and high hematocrit, endoscopic variceal sclerosis therapy or surgical treatment were protective factors (P＜0.05). Multivariate Cox regression analysis revealed that Child-Pugh grade (RR= 4. 997,95%CI:2. 787～8. 960, P＜0.01),Rockall score (RR= 1. 284,95%CI:1. 062～1. 553,P=0. 010), high counts of white blood cells (RR= 1. 072,95%CI: 1. 001 ～ 1. 148, P= 0. 046) were risk factors for prognosis of liver cirrhotic patients with EVB. Conclusion It is demonstrated that Child-Pugh grade,Rockall score and high counts of white blood cells are risk factors for prognosis of liver cirrhotic patients with EVB.

The prognosis of liver cirrhotic patients with acute esophageal variceal bleeding: a Cox regression analysis