The combination of the serum carbohydrate antigen 19-9 and carcinoembryonic antigen is a simple and accurate predictor of mortality in pancreatic cancer patients

Purpose

The aim of this study was to detect high-performance prognostic biomarkers of pancreatic cancer which would enable the identification of high-risk patients.

Methods

The subjects were 324 patients who underwent radical surgery for pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma without neoadjuvant therapy. We evaluated the prognostic impact of four perioperative serum tumor markers, including carbohydrate antigen 19-9 (CA19-9) and carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA). We also evaluated the indices by multiplying the values of two tumor markers (e.g., CA19-9 × CEA).

Results

The preoperative CA19-9 × CEA index had a strong correlation with the prognosis of patients with pancreatic cancer, even when the cut-off was set at the median value. CA19-9 × CEA ≥500 was an independent predictor of mortality (hazard ratio: 1.642, p = 0.021). In the ROC curve analysis of early mortality after surgery, the CA19-9 × CEA index had the highest goodness of fit. The presence of CA19-9 × CEA ≥500 had the largest attributable risk proportion because of its combined high predictive performance and prevalence. The postoperative CA19-9 × CEA index was also a significant predictive marker of mortality.

Conclusion

The CA19-9 × CEA index is a strong prognostic biomarker that could help identify pancreatic cancer patients expected to have a poor prognosis so that they can be administered appropriate multidisciplinary treatment.