改良捕获再捕获技术在评估全国合成毒品滥用人群基数中的应用

目的:估算全国合成毒品滥用人群基数.方法:根据公安机关吸毒人员动态管控库数据,应用改良的捕获再捕获方法,将三年内查获的合成毒品滥用人员作为标记个体,第二次捕获期设置为6个月,并将观察点前处于强制隔离戒毒的人员不纳入计算范围内进行统计分析.结果:全国合成毒品滥用人群实际数量是登记在册人群数量的3.87±0.03倍,其中男...

Application of improved capture-and-recapture technology in inferring the population base of synthetic drug users in China

Objective:To estimate the real number of population synthetic drug abuse in China. Methods:According to the characteristics of the database of the synthetic drug users in the police department, the method of capture-and-recapture was improved. The second capture period was set to 6 months, and the persons in addiction treatment centre at the beginning of the second capture were excluded from the calculation. Results:The actual number of synthetic drug abusers in China was 3.87±0.03 times of the registered number, 3.71±0.03 times for men and 4.60 ± 0.09 times for women. In seven regions of the country, the number of synthetic drug abusers from high to low is: Central China, Southwest China, South China, East China, Northeast China, North China and Northwest China;the ratio of the actual number of abusers to the registered population from high to low is: Northeast China, North China, Northwest China, Southwest China, South China, Central China and East China. Conclusion:It is feasible to use the improved capture-and-recapture method to evaluate the population base of synthetic drug abuse through the database of the synthetic drug users in the police department, which can shorten the research time and reduce the investment.