Fractal analysis of heart rate variability and mortality after an acute myocardial infarction

The recently developed fractal analysis of heart rate (HR) variability has been suggested to provide prognostic information about patients with heart failure. This prospective multicenter study was designed to assess the prognostic significance of fractal and traditional HR variability parameters in a large, consecutive series of survivors of an acute myocardial infarction (AMI). A consecutive series of 697 patients were recruited to participate 2 to 7 days after an AMI in 3 Nordic university hospitals. The conventional time-domain and spectral parameters and the newer fractal scaling indexes of HR variability were analyzed from 24-hour RR interval recordings. During the mean follow-up of 18.4 +/- 6.5 months, 49 patients (7.0%) died. Of all the risk variables, a reduced short-term fractal scaling exponent (alpha(1) <0.65), measured by detrended fluctuation analysis, was the most powerful predictor of mortality (univariate relative risk 5.05, 95% confidence intervals CI] 2.87 to 8.89, p <0.001). A low scaling exponent alpha(1) predicted death in the patients with and without depressed left ventricular function (p <0.001 and p <0.01, respectively). Several other HR variability parameters also predicted mortality in univariate analyses, but in a multivariate analysis after adjustments for clinical variables and left ventricular ejection fraction, alpha(1) was the most significant independent HR variability index that predicted subsequent mortality (relative risk 3.90, 95% CI 2.03 to 7.49, p <0.001). Short-term fractal scaling analysis of HR variability is a powerful predictor of mortality among patients surviving an acute myocardial infarction.