| 应用灰色系统GM（1,1）模型预测流行性出血热流行趋势 |
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| 引用本文： | 王健龙,吴锦如,刘敏,刘伟雄,傅永安.应用灰色系统GM（1,1）模型预测流行性出血热流行趋势[J].实用预防医学,2012,19(9):1341-1343. |
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| 作者姓名： | 王健龙 吴锦如 刘敏 刘伟雄 傅永安 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 湖南省娄底市卫生学校 湖南娄底417000
2. 娄底市疾病预防控制中心 |
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| 摘 要： | 目的探讨流行性出血热的数学模型并对今后的流行趋势进行预测,为防控工作提供指导。方法分析娄底市2004-2011年流行性出血热的疫情特点,建立灰色系统GM（1,1）模型并预测流行性出血热在2012、2013年发病情况。结果通过模型分析,该模型相对误差在0.24%~32%之间,模型良好。结论该模型适用于本地区流行性出血热并提示流行性出血热在娄底市有上升趋势,应及时采取防范措施。
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| 关 键 词： | GM（1 1） 出血热 预测分析 |
Application of Grey System GM (1,1) Model for Predicting Epidemiological Trend of Hemorrhagic Fever |
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| Institution: | WANG Jian-long,WU Jin-ru,LIU Min,et al.(Loudi Health School,Loudi 417000,Hunan,China) |
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| Abstract: | Objective To explore a mathematics model of hemorrhage fever for predicting its epidemiological trend,and to provide the reference for prevention and control of hemorrhage fever. Methods We analyzed the epidemiological characteristics of hemorrhage fever in Loudi from 2004 to 2011.A grey system GM(1,1) model was established to forecast the incidence of hemorrhagic fever in 2012 and 2013. Results We had built a successful model which had a relative error of 0.24%-32%. Conclusions This model is suitable for predicting hemorrhage fever in local area,and it suggests that hemorrhage fever shows an upward trend in Loudi City.Thus intensive care and preventive measures should be taken in the next year. |
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| Keywords: | GM(1 1) Hemorrhagic fever Prediction and analysis |
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