Distinction between early normal intrauterine pregnancies and pathological pregnancies by means of a logistic model.

The probability of an unclear very early pregnancy being a normal intrauterine pregnancy was estimated using a logistic model. Five diagnostic measures of prognostic value were identified in the model: (i) daily change in human chorionic gonadotrophin (HCG), (ii) results of transvaginal ultrasound, (iii) vaginal bleeding, (iv) serum progesterone level and (v) risk score for ectopic pregnancy. With the use of this model, the probability of a normal intrauterine pregnancy has been estimated as 96.7%.