改良Delphi法在吸毒人群基数估计中的应用

目的:探索Delphi法在吸毒人群及相关指标估计中的应用情况,为乐山市艾滋病疫情预测及各类相关工作提供吸毒人群基础数据。方法:用改良Delphi法于2004年尝试对乐山市市中区吸毒人群基数及相关指标进行估计。结果:在2004年7月26日,得到乐山市市中区吸毒人群主要指标估计数:乐山市市中区籍现有吸毒人群估计数2480人,约是同期登记在册人数(1101人)的2.5倍;其中男女性别比为4∶1;注射吸毒者所占比例80%,其中男女性别比4∶1;共用针具比例30%;强戒所收戒覆盖率70%;HIV检测覆盖率70.5%;美沙酮覆盖率20%;年流出比例5%;年死亡比例2.5%;年吸毒者增加比例10%,等。结论:经过良好的设计、组织和实施,改良Delphi法可满足吸毒人群基数估计及相关指标估计的需要,但不推荐作为独立方法使用,宜与其他平行估计方法的结果相互补充验证。

ESTIMATIING THE SIZE OF DRUG USERS USING AN IMPROVED DELPHI TECHNIQUE

Objective:To prove that Delphi technique as a practical and effective method can estimate the number of drug users(DUs) and other indexes related to drug use and can provide basic data for Leshan city HIV/AIDS epidemic prediction and routine work.Methods:Use improved Delphi method to estimate the number of drug users and the related indexes.Results:Estimates of indexes related to drug use were derived from July 26,2004 as follows:(1) the number of active DUs was 2480,about 2.5 times as much as that of being registered in the local public security system,of which male-to-female ratio was 4∶1;(2) 80% of the respondents was injecting drug abusers,of which male-to-female ratio was 4∶1,and the proportion of those who shared needle was 30%;(3) the detoxification rate was 70%;(4) HIV testing coverage was 70.5%;(5) methadone treatment coverage was 20%;(6) the annual outflow proportion of DUs was 5%;(7) the annual mortality rate was 2.5%;(8) the annual transfer rate of non-drug users to drug users was 10%.Conclusion:The improved Delphi method can be applied to practical problems in a way that meets current estimate needs relevant to DUs.It is a simple and feasible method in the application of estimating the number of DUs and other indicators with refined design,well organization and better implementation.However,this method should not be used without combination with other estimation methods.